Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF anchor trader sentiment toward 90-93°F highs in Dallas on March 20, with the GFS 12z run projecting a 93°F peak under a robust 500 mb ridge fostering adiabatic warming and downslope flow from West Texas. Closely matched 90-91°F (25%) and 92-93°F (25%) odds reflect ensemble means near 92°F, differentiated by ECMWF's drier boundary layer implying fuller insolation versus GFS's subtle cumulus shading risk trimming 1-2°F. Recent 00z updates trended neutral amid 25°F+ anomalies from March climatology (normal high ~67°F), but NWS holds a 92°F point forecast; afternoon CAPE buildup could trigger isolated thunderstorms, tilting odds lower to 88-89°F if outflow cools the urban heat island.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 20?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 20?
92-93°F 25%
90-91°F 25%
88-89°F 23%
94-95°F 17%
$19,856 Vol.
$19,856 Vol.
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
25%
94-95°F
17%
96°F or higher
8%
92-93°F 25%
90-91°F 25%
88-89°F 23%
94-95°F 17%
$19,856 Vol.
$19,856 Vol.
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
23%
90-91°F
25%
92-93°F
25%
94-95°F
17%
96°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF anchor trader sentiment toward 90-93°F highs in Dallas on March 20, with the GFS 12z run projecting a 93°F peak under a robust 500 mb ridge fostering adiabatic warming and downslope flow from West Texas. Closely matched 90-91°F (25%) and 92-93°F (25%) odds reflect ensemble means near 92°F, differentiated by ECMWF's drier boundary layer implying fuller insolation versus GFS's subtle cumulus shading risk trimming 1-2°F. Recent 00z updates trended neutral amid 25°F+ anomalies from March climatology (normal high ~67°F), but NWS holds a 92°F point forecast; afternoon CAPE buildup could trigger isolated thunderstorms, tilting odds lower to 88-89°F if outflow cools the urban heat island.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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