First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)
First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)
Stephen Miran 100.0%
J.D. Vance <1%
Marco Rubio <1%
Scott Bessent <1%
$73,073 Vol.
$73,073 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
J.D. Vance
No
Marco Rubio
No
Scott Bessent
No
Pete Hegseth
No
Pam Bondi
No
Doug Burgum
No
Brooke Rollins
No
Howard Lutnick
No
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
No
Scott Turner
No
Sean Duffy
No
Chris Wright
No
Linda McMahon
No
Doug Collins
No
Kristi Noem
No
Lee Zeldin
No
Susie Wiles
No
Tulsi Gabbard
No
Russell T. Vought
No
John Ratcliffe
No
Jamieson Greer
No
Mike Waltz
No
Stephen Miran
Yes
Kelly Loeffler
No
Stephen Miran 100.0%
J.D. Vance <1%
Marco Rubio <1%
Scott Bessent <1%
$73,073 Vol.
$73,073 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
J.D. Vance
$1,953 Vol.
No
Marco Rubio
$3,896 Vol.
No
Scott Bessent
$3,724 Vol.
No
Pete Hegseth
$3,865 Vol.
No
Pam Bondi
$4,551 Vol.
No
Doug Burgum
$2,028 Vol.
No
Brooke Rollins
$2,726 Vol.
No
Howard Lutnick
$2,028 Vol.
No
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$2,766 Vol.
No
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$2,833 Vol.
No
Scott Turner
$1,543 Vol.
No
Sean Duffy
$1,781 Vol.
No
Chris Wright
$3,135 Vol.
No
Linda McMahon
$1,417 Vol.
No
Doug Collins
$1,718 Vol.
No
Kristi Noem
$4,869 Vol.
No
Lee Zeldin
$827 Vol.
No
Susie Wiles
$3,097 Vol.
No
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,392 Vol.
No
Russell T. Vought
$1,949 Vol.
No
John Ratcliffe
$1,918 Vol.
No
Jamieson Greer
$2,203 Vol.
No
Mike Waltz
$8,969 Vol.
No
Stephen Miran
$3,506 Vol.
Yes
Kelly Loeffler
$2,235 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.
If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.
If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
Volume
$73,073End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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