Recent sharp declines in WTI crude oil futures, with the July 2026 contract settling near $84.88 on June 12 after dropping over 3%, reflect easing supply concerns amid reports of potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier volatility stemmed from the strait’s effective closure since late February, which has idled over 11 million barrels per day of Middle East production and drawn down global inventories sharply, supporting prices above $100 in May per EIA data. Traders now price in a higher probability of resolution before month-end, capping upside while nearby contract levels and inventory tightness keep the >$84 bucket as the modal outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include any formal agreement announcements or further EIA inventory reports that could shift the June settlement path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 59%
$77-$84 25%
70–77 $ 12.2%
$63-$70 3.3%
$229,755 Vol.
$229,755 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
70–77 $
12%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
59%
>$84 59%
$77-$84 25%
70–77 $ 12.2%
$63-$70 3.3%
$229,755 Vol.
$229,755 Vol.
< $42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
70–77 $
12%
$77-$84
22%
>$84
59%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent sharp declines in WTI crude oil futures, with the July 2026 contract settling near $84.88 on June 12 after dropping over 3%, reflect easing supply concerns amid reports of potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire progress and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier volatility stemmed from the strait’s effective closure since late February, which has idled over 11 million barrels per day of Middle East production and drawn down global inventories sharply, supporting prices above $100 in May per EIA data. Traders now price in a higher probability of resolution before month-end, capping upside while nearby contract levels and inventory tightness keep the >$84 bucket as the modal outcome at 58.5% implied probability. Key near-term catalysts include any formal agreement announcements or further EIA inventory reports that could shift the June settlement path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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