Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
$3,168,666 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 25, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Created At: Oct 26, 2024, 5:33 PM UTC
Volume
$3,168,666End Date
Dec 31, 2024Created At
Oct 26, 2024, 5:33 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$3,168,666 Vol.
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 25, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Volume
$3,168,666End Date
Dec 31, 2024Created At
Oct 26, 2024, 5:33 PM UTCResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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