President Trump's April 2026 fiscal year 2027 budget request for $152 million to initiate restoration of Alcatraz as a federal prison builds on his 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. However, the project requires Congressional appropriations, repeal of National Park Service protections, detailed feasibility studies, and resolution of major logistical and cost hurdles. California officials have expressed opposition, and experts note the site's dilapidated condition plus extended construction timelines make full operational reopening unlikely before the end of 2026. These procedural and political barriers underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent probability for no reopening this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 fiscal year 2027 budget request for $152 million to initiate restoration of Alcatraz as a federal prison builds on his 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. However, the project requires Congressional appropriations, repeal of National Park Service protections, detailed feasibility studies, and resolution of major logistical and cost hurdles. California officials have expressed opposition, and experts note the site's dilapidated condition plus extended construction timelines make full operational reopening unlikely before the end of 2026. These procedural and political barriers underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent probability for no reopening this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,151End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 2026 fiscal year 2027 budget request for $152 million to initiate restoration of Alcatraz as a federal prison builds on his 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. However, the project requires Congressional appropriations, repeal of National Park Service protections, detailed feasibility studies, and resolution of major logistical and cost hurdles. California officials have expressed opposition, and experts note the site's dilapidated condition plus extended construction timelines make full operational reopening unlikely before the end of 2026. These procedural and political barriers underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent probability for no reopening this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,151End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 2026 fiscal year 2027 budget request for $152 million to initiate restoration of Alcatraz as a federal prison builds on his 2025 directive to the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice, and other agencies. However, the project requires Congressional appropriations, repeal of National Park Service protections, detailed feasibility studies, and resolution of major logistical and cost hurdles. California officials have expressed opposition, and experts note the site's dilapidated condition plus extended construction timelines make full operational reopening unlikely before the end of 2026. These procedural and political barriers underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent probability for no reopening this year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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