Henry Lebioda commands trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win the Valspar Championship, driven by his three-shot lead atop the leaderboard after 54 holes at Innisbrook's demanding Copperhead Course, where he sits at 11-under with elite ball-striking and putting. Thorbjørn Olesen (28.8%) and Emiliano Grillo (28.5%) trail closely at 10-under and 9-under, buoyed by bogey-free third rounds and strong approach play that positions them for a Sunday charge. Mackenzie Hughes and Patrick Fishburn hover nearby with momentum from recent birdie runs, while big names like Matt Fitzpatrick and Brooks Koepka fade lower amid inconsistent weekends. No major injuries reported; favorable final-round weather supports the leaders' edge in this tight race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSung-Jae Im 21.4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 11.8%
David Lipsky 7.4%
Doug Ghim 5.9%
$136,346 Vol.
$136,346 Vol.
Sung-Jae Im
21%
Matt Fitzpatrick
12%
David Lipsky
7%
Doug Ghim
6%
Chandler Blanchet
6%
Brooks Koepka
5%
Jacob Bridgeman
5%
Marco Penge
4%
Pierceson Coody
4%
Davis Chatfield
3%
Xander Schauffele
3%
Tony Finau
3%
David Ford
2%
Patrick Cantlay
2%
Corey Conners
2%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Ricky Castillo
1%
Keegan Bradley
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Blades Brown
1%
Chandler Phillips
1%
John Parry
1%
Matthias Schmid
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
22%
Chad Ramey
21%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Kevin Roy
20%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Michael Kim
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
19%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Robert MacIntyre
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Max Greyserman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Henry Lebioda
-
Ze-Cheng Dou
-
Patrick Fishburn
-
Emiliano Grillo
-
Mackenzie Hughes
-
Tom Kim
-
Andrew Novak
-
Thorbjorn Olesen
-
Sung-Jae Im 21.4%
Matt Fitzpatrick 11.8%
David Lipsky 7.4%
Doug Ghim 5.9%
$136,346 Vol.
$136,346 Vol.
Sung-Jae Im
21%
Matt Fitzpatrick
12%
David Lipsky
7%
Doug Ghim
6%
Chandler Blanchet
6%
Brooks Koepka
5%
Jacob Bridgeman
5%
Marco Penge
4%
Pierceson Coody
4%
Davis Chatfield
3%
Xander Schauffele
3%
Tony Finau
3%
David Ford
2%
Patrick Cantlay
2%
Corey Conners
2%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Ricky Castillo
1%
Keegan Bradley
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Blades Brown
1%
Chandler Phillips
1%
John Parry
1%
Matthias Schmid
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
22%
Chad Ramey
21%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Kevin Roy
20%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Michael Kim
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
19%
Akshay Bhatia
<1%
Robert MacIntyre
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Max Greyserman
<1%
Stephan Jaeger
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Henry Lebioda
-
Ze-Cheng Dou
-
Patrick Fishburn
-
Emiliano Grillo
-
Mackenzie Hughes
-
Tom Kim
-
Andrew Novak
-
Thorbjorn Olesen
-
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valspar Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valspar Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by March 28, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Henry Lebioda commands trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability to win the Valspar Championship, driven by his three-shot lead atop the leaderboard after 54 holes at Innisbrook's demanding Copperhead Course, where he sits at 11-under with elite ball-striking and putting. Thorbjørn Olesen (28.8%) and Emiliano Grillo (28.5%) trail closely at 10-under and 9-under, buoyed by bogey-free third rounds and strong approach play that positions them for a Sunday charge. Mackenzie Hughes and Patrick Fishburn hover nearby with momentum from recent birdie runs, while big names like Matt Fitzpatrick and Brooks Koepka fade lower amid inconsistent weekends. No major injuries reported; favorable final-round weather supports the leaders' edge in this tight race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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