Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 77% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 27 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4 Senate election, driven by its competitive candidates topping recent state-level polls in strongholds like Santa Catarina—where Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni lead—and reinforced by PL's current status as the Senate's largest party with 15 members following January switches. Recent presidential polls, including Datafolha's April findings showing Flávio Bolsonaro nearly tied with President Lula in first-round and runoff scenarios, provide coattails effect amid right-wing momentum, while PSD trails at 13.6% via centrist positioning in fragmented races. No national seat projections have emerged in the past month, but PL's reinforcements like Sergio Moro heighten its path to plurality; upcoming candidate conventions could alter dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트PL 77%
PSD 13.2%
REPUBLICANOS 4.8%
UNIÃO 4.0%
신규
신규
2026.10.04
PL
77%
PSD
13%
REPUBLICANOS
6%
UNIÃO
4%
PDT
4%
PODEMOS
4%
PSDB
3%
MDB
3%
NOVO
3%
PP
3%
PT
6%
PSB
1%
PL 77%
PSD 13.2%
REPUBLICANOS 4.8%
UNIÃO 4.0%
신규
신규
2026.10.04
PL
$2,100 거래량
77%
PSD
$619 거래량
13%
REPUBLICANOS
$464 거래량
6%
UNIÃO
$0 거래량
4%
PDT
$3,765 거래량
4%
PODEMOS
$579 거래량
4%
PSDB
$0 거래량
3%
MDB
$0 거래량
3%
NOVO
$0 거래량
3%
PP
$0 거래량
3%
PT
$0 거래량
6%
PSB
$0 거래량
1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 77% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 27 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4 Senate election, driven by its competitive candidates topping recent state-level polls in strongholds like Santa Catarina—where Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni lead—and reinforced by PL's current status as the Senate's largest party with 15 members following January switches. Recent presidential polls, including Datafolha's April findings showing Flávio Bolsonaro nearly tied with President Lula in first-round and runoff scenarios, provide coattails effect amid right-wing momentum, while PSD trails at 13.6% via centrist positioning in fragmented races. No national seat projections have emerged in the past month, but PL's reinforcements like Sergio Moro heighten its path to plurality; upcoming candidate conventions could alter dynamics.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$7,526종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 77% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 27 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4 Senate election, driven by its competitive candidates topping recent state-level polls in strongholds like Santa Catarina—where Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni lead—and reinforced by PL's current status as the Senate's largest party with 15 members following January switches. Recent presidential polls, including Datafolha's April findings showing Flávio Bolsonaro nearly tied with President Lula in first-round and runoff scenarios, provide coattails effect amid right-wing momentum, while PSD trails at 13.6% via centrist positioning in fragmented races. No national seat projections have emerged in the past month, but PL's reinforcements like Sergio Moro heighten its path to plurality; upcoming candidate conventions could alter dynamics.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
거래량
$7,526종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Partido Liberal (PL) at 77% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 27 up for grabs in Brazil's October 4 Senate election, driven by its competitive candidates topping recent state-level polls in strongholds like Santa Catarina—where Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni lead—and reinforced by PL's current status as the Senate's largest party with 15 members following January switches. Recent presidential polls, including Datafolha's April findings showing Flávio Bolsonaro nearly tied with President Lula in first-round and runoff scenarios, provide coattails effect amid right-wing momentum, while PSD trails at 13.6% via centrist positioning in fragmented races. No national seat projections have emerged in the past month, but PL's reinforcements like Sergio Moro heighten its path to plurality; upcoming candidate conventions could alter dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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