United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트통합 러시아(ER) 94.8%
새로운 사람들(NL) 3.3%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
로디나 <1%
$1,137,271 거래량
$1,137,271 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
95%
새로운 사람들(NL)
3%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
1%
로디나
1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
<1%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진리를 위하여(SRZP)
<1%
통합 러시아(ER) 94.8%
새로운 사람들(NL) 3.3%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF) <1%
로디나 <1%
$1,137,271 거래량
$1,137,271 거래량
2026.09.30
통합 러시아(ER)
$474,066 거래량
95%
새로운 사람들(NL)
$59,188 거래량
3%
러시아 연방 공산당(KPRF)
$82,852 거래량
1%
로디나
$199,146 거래량
1%
시민 플랫폼(GP)
$80,792 거래량
<1%
러시아 자유민주당(LDPR)
$32,271 거래량
<1%
공정 러시아 – 진리를 위하여(SRZP)
$208,955 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
마켓 개설일: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
거래량
$1,137,271종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
거래량
$1,137,271종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 94.8% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its institutional dominance in Russia's mixed electoral system—half proportional lists, half single-mandate constituencies—where administrative resources historically secure supermajorities, as in 2021's 324 seats. Early April polls from FOM and VCIOM show the party leading vote intentions at 27-52%, well ahead of New People (up to 15%), KPRF (10-13%), LDPR (11-14%), and others under 7%, amid Kremlin preparations like leadership restructuring under Dmitry Medvedev, propaganda emphasizing social initiatives, and inclusion of Ukraine war veterans on party lists. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp economic downturn, high-profile scandals, or procedural irregularities boosting systemic opposition, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the September 18-20 vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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