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선거·세계 선거

더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자

icon for 더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자
선거·세계 선거

더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자

다니엘 에니스 69%

재니스 보일런 23.1%

게리 허치 7.4%

레이 맥아담 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,084,691 거래량

다니엘 에니스 69%

재니스 보일런 23.1%

게리 허치 7.4%

레이 맥아담 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,084,691 거래량

다니엘 에니스

$33,191 거래량

69%

재니스 보일런

$17,861 거래량

23%

게리 허치

$507,455 거래량

7%

레이 맥아담

$34,431 거래량

2%

자넷 호너

$12,891 거래량

1%

말라키 스틴슨

$20,903 거래량

1%

길리언 셰럿

$182,733 거래량

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,501 거래량

1%

메리 피츠패트릭

$45,252 거래량

<1%

에오언 오 캐너반

$53,097 거래량

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,451 거래량

<1%

존 스티븐스

$153,925 거래량

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos poll underscores the tight Dublin Central by-election race ahead of May 22 polling, with Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan leading first preferences at 21%, Social Democrats' Daniel Ennis at 18%, and independent Gerry Hutch at 14%, yet traders heavily favor Ennis at 68.5% implied probability, anticipating his strong position for PR-STV transfers from eliminated lower-order candidates. Boylan's lead reflects Sinn Féin's urban appeal despite her recent rowback on controversial fluoride comments linking it to dental issues, while Ennis benefits from Social Democrats' momentum amid scrutiny over a past company secretary role tied to a fined director—though no declaration was required. Hutch garners notoriety-driven support at 7.4%, but government parties like Fine Gael's Ray McAdam lag below 2%, highlighting anti-incumbent sentiment in this Dáil vacancy contest.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
거래량
$1,084,691
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).A recent Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos poll underscores the tight Dublin Central by-election race ahead of May 22 polling, with Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan leading first preferences at 21%, Social Democrats' Daniel Ennis at 18%, and independent Gerry Hutch at 14%, yet traders heavily favor Ennis at 68.5% implied probability, anticipating his strong position for PR-STV transfers from eliminated lower-order candidates. Boylan's lead reflects Sinn Féin's urban appeal despite her recent rowback on controversial fluoride comments linking it to dental issues, while Ennis benefits from Social Democrats' momentum amid scrutiny over a past company secretary role tied to a fined director—though no declaration was required. Hutch garners notoriety-driven support at 7.4%, but government parties like Fine Gael's Ray McAdam lag below 2%, highlighting anti-incumbent sentiment in this Dáil vacancy contest.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
거래량
$1,084,691
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자"은 12개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 69%의 "다니엘 에니스"이며, 이어서 23%의 "재니스 보일런"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 69¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 69%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자"은 총 $1.1 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Feb 20, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 12개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자"의 현재 유력 후보는 69%의 "다니엘 에니스"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 69%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 23%의 "재니스 보일런"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"더블린-센트럴 바이-선거 당선자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.