Trader consensus favors CDU with 57.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD senate since 2023 and consistent poll leads of 4-6 points. The latest INSA poll for BILD (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Die Linke and Grüne at 15%, reflecting stable support despite a January power outage that drew criticism for the senate's crisis management—including Wegner's private tennis outing—but failed to dent vote intentions per Infratest dimap. Die Linke's earlier surge to 18-19% has eased, positioning challengers competitively yet trailing in this fragmented race toward coalition negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트CDU 57%
그뤼네 15.0%
링케 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,556 거래량
$2,572,556 거래량
2026.09.20
CDU
57%
그뤼네
15%
링케
12%
AfD
9%
SPD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 57%
그뤼네 15.0%
링케 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,556 거래량
$2,572,556 거래량
2026.09.20
CDU
$15,140 거래량
57%
그뤼네
$27,805 거래량
15%
링케
$11,553 거래량
12%
AfD
$2,187,196 거래량
9%
SPD
$287,315 거래량
7%
BSW
$26,247 거래량
1%
FDP
$10,274 거래량
<1%
FW
$7,026 거래량
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 57.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD senate since 2023 and consistent poll leads of 4-6 points. The latest INSA poll for BILD (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Die Linke and Grüne at 15%, reflecting stable support despite a January power outage that drew criticism for the senate's crisis management—including Wegner's private tennis outing—but failed to dent vote intentions per Infratest dimap. Die Linke's earlier surge to 18-19% has eased, positioning challengers competitively yet trailing in this fragmented race toward coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
마켓 개설일: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
거래량
$2,572,556종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus favors CDU with 57.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD senate since 2023 and consistent poll leads of 4-6 points. The latest INSA poll for BILD (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Die Linke and Grüne at 15%, reflecting stable support despite a January power outage that drew criticism for the senate's crisis management—including Wegner's private tennis outing—but failed to dent vote intentions per Infratest dimap. Die Linke's earlier surge to 18-19% has eased, positioning challengers competitively yet trailing in this fragmented race toward coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
거래량
$2,572,556종료일
2026.09.20마켓 개설일
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors CDU with 57.5% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in the CDU-SPD senate since 2023 and consistent poll leads of 4-6 points. The latest INSA poll for BILD (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of AfD and SPD at 17% each, Die Linke and Grüne at 15%, reflecting stable support despite a January power outage that drew criticism for the senate's crisis management—including Wegner's private tennis outing—but failed to dent vote intentions per Infratest dimap. Die Linke's earlier surge to 18-19% has eased, positioning challengers competitively yet trailing in this fragmented race toward coalition negotiations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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