Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 2026 Berlin state election shows a fragmented field with no party exceeding low-20s support, sustaining tight implied probabilities across the leading contenders. CDU edges most surveys at 19-21 percent amid national momentum for the party in other states, while AfD tracks closely at 14-18 percent on broader right-wing consolidation trends. Grüne and Linke remain competitive in the mid-teens, buoyed by urban voter bases, as SPD support hovers near 15 percent without clear recovery. This distribution leaves coalition math uncertain and prevents any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader pricing, with separation likely hinging on turnout shifts or late campaign events before the September vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 2026 Berlin state election shows a fragmented field with no party exceeding low-20s support, sustaining tight implied probabilities across the leading contenders. CDU edges most surveys at 19-21 percent amid national momentum for the party in other states, while AfD tracks closely at 14-18 percent on broader right-wing consolidation trends. Grüne and Linke remain competitive in the mid-teens, buoyed by urban voter bases, as SPD support hovers near 15 percent without clear recovery. This distribution leaves coalition math uncertain and prevents any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader pricing, with separation likely hinging on turnout shifts or late campaign events before the September vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 20 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
May 18 2026
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
May 18 2026
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
May 17 2026
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
May 17 2026
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
May 13 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
May 12 2026
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
May 8 2026
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
May 8 2026
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
May 7 2026
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
May 7 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
Apr 23 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
Apr 22 2026
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
Apr 22 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Feb 28 2026
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU lead in Berlin with 22%
CDU rises to 58%4%
The Civey poll published on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's position as the leading party in Berlin with 22%, closely followed by Grüne and Die Linke. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's lead while showing a competitive multi-party race, affecting price movements for CDU and other parties.
Jan 15 2026
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU rises to 54%4%
A January 2026 poll by Infratest dimap indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in the upcoming Berlin state election with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. This poll likely supported the CDU's relatively high market price early in the analysis window.
Jan 12 2026
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
Jan 12 2026
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Dec 10 2025
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 2026 Berlin state election shows a fragmented field with no party exceeding low-20s support, sustaining tight implied probabilities across the leading contenders. CDU edges most surveys at 19-21 percent amid national momentum for the party in other states, while AfD tracks closely at 14-18 percent on broader right-wing consolidation trends. Grüne and Linke remain competitive in the mid-teens, buoyed by urban voter bases, as SPD support hovers near 15 percent without clear recovery. This distribution leaves coalition math uncertain and prevents any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader pricing, with separation likely hinging on turnout shifts or late campaign events before the September vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for the September 2026 Berlin state election shows a fragmented field with no party exceeding low-20s support, sustaining tight implied probabilities across the leading contenders. CDU edges most surveys at 19-21 percent amid national momentum for the party in other states, while AfD tracks closely at 14-18 percent on broader right-wing consolidation trends. Grüne and Linke remain competitive in the mid-teens, buoyed by urban voter bases, as SPD support hovers near 15 percent without clear recovery. This distribution leaves coalition math uncertain and prevents any single outcome from pulling decisively ahead in trader pricing, with separation likely hinging on turnout shifts or late campaign events before the September vote.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
May 20 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging to 42% in Saxony, far ahead of CDU
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony showed the AfD with 42% support, doubling the CDU's 21%. While this is a different state, the AfD's strong performance in eastern Germany likely influenced market perceptions of the party's prospects in Berlin, contributing to AfD price increases and CDU declines.
May 18 2026
Green party surges in Berlin election polls, challenging CDU lead
Grüne jumps to 24%7%
In mid-May 2026, the Green party's polling surged to over 20%, narrowing the gap with the CDU and reflecting increased voter support. This caused a decline in CDU's market price and a rise for the Greens, indicating a more competitive race.
May 18 2026
Grüne reach peak polling at 24% in Berlin, challenging CDU dominance
Grüne rises to 24%3%
By mid-May 2026, the Greens peaked at 24% in polls, reflecting increased voter support and putting pressure on the CDU, which was declining in market price, indicating a more competitive race.
May 17 2026
AfD gains momentum in Berlin election market amid rising support
AfD jumps to 25%6%
In May 2026, AfD's market price rose sharply from 19% to 25%, reflecting increased voter support and momentum. This may be linked to broader regional trends and voter concerns on immigration and security, boosting AfD's prospects in Berlin.
May 17 2026
Polls show Grüne surging to 25%, challenging CDU's lead in Berlin election
Grüne rises to 25%4%
Recent polls indicated a surge in support for the Grüne party, rising to 25%, which caused a decline in CDU's market price from 36% to 32% and a rise in Grüne's price, signaling a shift in voter preferences.
May 13 2026
INSA poll shows AfD surging in Saxony with 42% support
AfD jumps to 26%6%
A May 2026 INSA poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD reaching a record 42%, far ahead of CDU at 24%. Although this is a different state, the surge of AfD in eastern Germany likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price increase and CDU's decline in Berlin due to broader regional trends.
May 12 2026
Federal polling shows CDU and SPD decline, AfD rising nationally
AfD jumps to 26%6%
Federal polls in May 2026 indicated a decline in support for the CDU and SPD, with AfD rising to second place nationally. This broader political context likely influenced Berlin market prices, contributing to the decline in CDU and SPD prices and the rise of AfD.
May 8 2026
AfD surges to 19% in Berlin polls, overtaking SPD and Greens
AfD jumps to 19%7%
In early May 2026, polls showed a surge in AfD support to 19%, surpassing SPD and Greens, which increased market optimism for AfD reflected in price rising from 12% to 19%.
May 8 2026
AfD gains in polls, rising to second place behind CDU in Berlin election race
AfD jumps to 19%7%
Polls showed AfD increasing support to 19%, narrowing the gap with CDU, which contributed to AfD's market price rising from 12% to 19%, reflecting growing voter support and a more competitive election landscape.
May 7 2026
Poll shows AfD surging in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing absolute majority
AfD jumps to 26%7%
A poll by Infratest dimap on May 7, 2026, showed AfD surging to 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, nearing an absolute majority. While this is outside Berlin, the AfD's national momentum likely influenced Berlin market perceptions, contributing to AfD's price rise in Berlin markets during May 2026.
May 7 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows AfD at 41% in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU at 26%
AfD jumps to 26%6%
The May 7, 2026 Infratest dimap poll in Saxony-Anhalt showed AfD increasing to 41%, with CDU declining to 26%, reinforcing AfD's momentum and impacting Berlin market perceptions of AfD's rising influence nationally.
Apr 23 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election but coalition majority at risk
CDU dips to 52%3%
Polls in April 2026 indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in Berlin with around 20%, but the incumbent coalition (CDU and SPD) was projected to lose its parliamentary majority. This uncertainty contributed to volatility and decline in CDU and SPD market prices.
Apr 22 2026
Poll shows CDU narrowly leading with AfD, Grüne, and Linke close behind
CDU drops to 43%13%
A new poll indicated a tight race with CDU at 19%, and AfD, Grüne, and Linke all at 18%, causing a drop in CDU market price from 56% to 43% and gains for AfD and Grüne. This reflected growing competition and uncertainty about the election outcome.
Apr 22 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly leading with 19-21%, AfD and Grüne close behind
CDU plunges to 40%16%
An April 2026 BerlinTrend poll indicated a tight race with CDU leading narrowly at around 19-21%, closely followed by AfD and Grüne at 15-18%, reflecting a fragmented field and causing market volatility with CDU prices declining and AfD and Grüne gaining.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 23%
CDU surges to 26%26%
A March poll showed CDU maintaining leadership with slight gains, while AfD and Die Linke gained ground.
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU still leading Berlin election with 23%
CDU rises to 60%4%
The Civey poll on March 26, 2026, indicated the CDU maintaining a slight lead at 23%, with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne closely contesting. This poll reflected a stable but competitive race, influencing market prices to remain relatively steady for these parties.
Feb 28 2026
Bundestag election polls show CDU and AfD neck and neck around 25%
CDU dips to 54%3%
Late February 2026 polls for the Bundestag election showed CDU and AfD both around 25%, with SPD and Greens trailing. This parity between CDU and AfD in national polls likely affected Berlin market prices, reflecting uncertainty and competition between these parties.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll confirms CDU lead with 22%, AfD at 17% in Berlin election
CDU dips to 53%3%
The INSA poll on February 24, 2026, reaffirmed CDU's position as the leading party with 22%, while AfD held 17%. This poll maintained market expectations of a CDU victory but indicated a competitive field, affecting price adjustments for CDU and AfD.
Feb 24 2026
INSA poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU dips to 56%2%
The INSA poll released on February 24, 2026, showed the CDU maintaining its lead at 22%, with AfD and SPD close behind. This poll contributed to market stability for CDU and AfD prices, reflecting ongoing competition among the top parties in Berlin.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 0%28%
A second major opinion poll confirmed CDU as frontrunner, reinforcing the market's initial CDU bias.
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU lead in Berlin with 22%
CDU rises to 58%4%
The Civey poll published on January 23, 2026, reaffirmed the CDU's position as the leading party in Berlin with 22%, closely followed by Grüne and Die Linke. This reinforced market confidence in CDU's lead while showing a competitive multi-party race, affecting price movements for CDU and other parties.
Jan 15 2026
AfD reaches biggest-ever lead over CDU in nationwide poll
AfD rises to 7%2%
In early 2026, the AfD extended its lead over the CDU in nationwide opinion polls, signaling growing support for AfD ahead of state elections including Berlin. This contributed to a rise in AfD's market price and a decline for CDU, reflecting shifting voter sentiment.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll: CDU leads Berlin election with 22%
CDU plunges to 28%22%
A major opinion poll showed CDU as frontrunner, setting initial market expectations for a CDU-led outcome.
Jan 14 2026
Infratest dimap poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 22%
CDU rises to 54%4%
A January 2026 poll by Infratest dimap indicated the CDU as the frontrunner in the upcoming Berlin state election with 22%, followed by Die Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. This poll likely supported the CDU's relatively high market price early in the analysis window.
Jan 12 2026
Grüne gains in Berlin polls, reaching 12% support
Grüne jumps to 12%7%
In mid-January 2026, polls showed a notable increase in support for the Grüne party, rising to 12%, signaling growing voter interest and causing a modest market uptick for the Greens.
Jan 12 2026
Criticism of CDU Mayor Kai Wegner's crisis management after Berlin power outage
CDU drops to 54%8%
The CDU faced public criticism for its handling of a major power outage in Berlin's southwest, which contributed to a decline in CDU's market price from 62% to 54%. This event signaled voter dissatisfaction impacting CDU's lead.
Dec 10 2025
CDU emerges as clear frontrunner in Berlin polls with 20.2% support
CDU jumps to 60%10%
Polls in early December 2025 showed the CDU leading with around 20.2% support, establishing it as the favorite to win the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election. This boosted market confidence in the CDU's chances, reflected in their price rising to around 60%.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Constitutional Court rejects BSW recount appeal after 2025 election
BSW plunges to 1%49%
Following the 2025 German federal election, the BSW party requested a full recount citing overseas voting problems, but the Bundestag's election review committee rejected the request on December 4, 2025. This legal setback diminished BSW's perceived viability, reflected in the market price dropping to near zero.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin election scheduled for September 20, 2026
The official election date was confirmed, setting the timeline for the prediction market analysis.
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자주 묻는 질문
"베를린 주 선거 승자"은 8개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 30%의 "CDU"이며, 이어서 27%의 "AfD"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 30¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 30%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 "베를린 주 선거 승자"은 총 $2.7 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 2, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
"베를린 주 선거 승자"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 8개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
"베를린 주 선거 승자"의 현재 유력 후보는 30%의 "CDU"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 30%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 27%의 "AfD"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
"베를린 주 선거 승자"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 "베를린 주 선거 승자"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. "베를린 주 선거 승자"에 $2.7 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
"베를린 주 선거 승자"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. "베를린 주 선거 승자" 마켓에서 "CDU"의 30¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "CDU"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 30%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 30¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 70¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
"베를린 주 선거 승자" 마켓은 Sep 20, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
"베를린 주 선거 승자" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 6개 댓글의 성장하는 토론이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 "베를린 주 선거 승자"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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