Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for a U.S. debt default by 2027 stems from the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom well into 2027 according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the limit over decades to meet existing obligations, including interest payments, Social Security, and defense spending, while Treasury extraordinary measures have bridged short-term gaps without incident. Bipartisan incentives to prevent economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market instability reinforce this pattern, with historical precedent showing resolution even amid polarized negotiations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unprecedented extended impasse in late 2027 if reconciliation or appropriations processes stall, though primary obligations on Treasury securities have always received priority in past standoffs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$14,924 Vol.
$14,924 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for a U.S. debt default by 2027 stems from the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom well into 2027 according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the limit over decades to meet existing obligations, including interest payments, Social Security, and defense spending, while Treasury extraordinary measures have bridged short-term gaps without incident. Bipartisan incentives to prevent economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market instability reinforce this pattern, with historical precedent showing resolution even amid polarized negotiations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unprecedented extended impasse in late 2027 if reconciliation or appropriations processes stall, though primary obligations on Treasury securities have always received priority in past standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$14,924終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for a U.S. debt default by 2027 stems from the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom well into 2027 according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the limit over decades to meet existing obligations, including interest payments, Social Security, and defense spending, while Treasury extraordinary measures have bridged short-term gaps without incident. Bipartisan incentives to prevent economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market instability reinforce this pattern, with historical precedent showing resolution even amid polarized negotiations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unprecedented extended impasse in late 2027 if reconciliation or appropriations processes stall, though primary obligations on Treasury securities have always received priority in past standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$14,924終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a near-certain "No" outcome for a U.S. debt default by 2027 stems from the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which raised the statutory debt limit to $41.1 trillion, providing ample headroom well into 2027 according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the limit over decades to meet existing obligations, including interest payments, Social Security, and defense spending, while Treasury extraordinary measures have bridged short-term gaps without incident. Bipartisan incentives to prevent economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market instability reinforce this pattern, with historical precedent showing resolution even amid polarized negotiations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include an unprecedented extended impasse in late 2027 if reconciliation or appropriations processes stall, though primary obligations on Treasury securities have always received priority in past standoffs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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