Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. sovereign default by 2027 because Congress has consistently raised or suspended the statutory debt limit ahead of any binding constraint, most recently via the 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion. Treasury extraordinary measures provide additional runway even after the limit is approached in 2027, while both parties face strong incentives to prevent market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global financial contagion that would follow any payment delay on obligations. Recent projections place potential contact with the ceiling in mid-2027, yet past standoffs have always ended in resolution without default. Late-session negotiations, lame-duck action, or attachment to must-pass funding measures remain available paths. Only an unprecedented, sustained failure to legislate despite clear economic signals could shift the outcome within the timeframe.