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エコノミー·Indicies

Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス

Market icon
エコノミー·Indicies

Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス

0％未満 99.5%

2〜3% <1%

0～2％ <1%

4-5％ <1%

Polymarket

$352,042 Vol.

0％未満 99.5%

2〜3% <1%

0～2％ <1%

4-5％ <1%

Polymarket

$352,042 Vol.

0％未満

$42,004 Vol.

100%

0～2％

$15,142 Vol.

<1%

2〜3%

$19,480 Vol.

<1%

3〜4％

$43,303 Vol.

<1%

4-5％

$67,447 Vol.

<1%

5～6％

$46,183 Vol.

<1%

6～8％

$59,118 Vol.

<1%

8〜10％

$34,929 Vol.

<1%

10％以上

$24,437 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.

Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.

Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス」はPolymarket上の9個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「0％未満」で100%、次いで「0～2％」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス」は$352Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 14, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス」で取引するには、このページに記載されている9個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス」の現在のフロントランナーは「0％未満」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「0～2％」で0%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Q 1 S&P 500パフォーマンス」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。