Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win re-election on November 3, driven by Nebraska's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994—and his advantages including a $10 million campaign war chest, President Trump's endorsement, and rival Charles Herbster's March 2 announcement declining a primary rematch. The March 2 filing deadline confirmed a fragmented Republican primary field against Pillen ahead of the May 12 vote, while Democrats feature former Sen. Lynne Walz as likely nominee amid no public polls. This commanding position reflects historical base rates for incumbents in safe Republican states, though late scandals, health events, primary upset, or a national wave could challenge the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 Vol.
92%
民主党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win re-election on November 3, driven by Nebraska's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994—and his advantages including a $10 million campaign war chest, President Trump's endorsement, and rival Charles Herbster's March 2 announcement declining a primary rematch. The March 2 filing deadline confirmed a fragmented Republican primary field against Pillen ahead of the May 12 vote, while Democrats feature former Sen. Lynne Walz as likely nominee amid no public polls. This commanding position reflects historical base rates for incumbents in safe Republican states, though late scandals, health events, primary upset, or a national wave could challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win re-election on November 3, driven by Nebraska's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994—and his advantages including a $10 million campaign war chest, President Trump's endorsement, and rival Charles Herbster's March 2 announcement declining a primary rematch. The March 2 filing deadline confirmed a fragmented Republican primary field against Pillen ahead of the May 12 vote, while Democrats feature former Sen. Lynne Walz as likely nominee amid no public polls. This commanding position reflects historical base rates for incumbents in safe Republican states, though late scandals, health events, primary upset, or a national wave could challenge the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$0終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win re-election on November 3, driven by Nebraska's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994—and his advantages including a $10 million campaign war chest, President Trump's endorsement, and rival Charles Herbster's March 2 announcement declining a primary rematch. The March 2 filing deadline confirmed a fragmented Republican primary field against Pillen ahead of the May 12 vote, while Democrats feature former Sen. Lynne Walz as likely nominee amid no public polls. This commanding position reflects historical base rates for incumbents in safe Republican states, though late scandals, health events, primary upset, or a national wave could challenge the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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