Market icon

この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？

Market icon

この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？

1,420万〜1,440万平方キロメートル 95%

1,400万平方キロメートル未満 2.6%

1,440万～1,460万平方キロメートル 1.7%

1,400万〜1,420万平方キロメートル 1.1%

Polymarket

$30,381 Vol.

1,420万〜1,440万平方キロメートル 95%

1,400万平方キロメートル未満 2.6%

1,440万～1,460万平方キロメートル 1.7%

1,400万〜1,420万平方キロメートル 1.1%

Polymarket

$30,381 Vol.

Market icon

1,400万平方キロメートル未満

$2,021 Vol.

3%

Market icon

1,400万〜1,420万平方キロメートル

$1,721 Vol.

1%

Market icon

1,420万〜1,440万平方キロメートル

$11,376 Vol.

95%

Market icon

1,440万～1,460万平方キロメートル

$5,403 Vol.

2%

Market icon

1,460万～1,480万平方キロメートル

$2,161 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

1,480万～1,500万平方キロメートル

$1,232 Vol.

1%

Market icon

1,500万平方キロメートル以上

$6,468 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. NSIDC scientists announced that Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum winter extent on March 15, 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers—firmly within the 14.2-14.4 million sq km range commanding 94.5% market-implied probability—tying near-record lows from 2025 and falling 1.36 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average. This positioning stems from persistent below-average ice growth throughout fall and winter, driven by unusually warm air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and reduced ice volume, the lowest on record per satellite data since 1979. Trader consensus reflects this authoritative measurement, with extent now declining as spring melt advances. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NSIDC's final analysis or anomalous late-season refreezing, both improbable given current trajectories and model consensus.

NSIDC scientists announced that Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum winter extent on March 15, 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers—firmly within the 14.2-14.4 million sq km range commanding 94.5% market-implied probability—tying near-record lows from 2025 and falling 1.36 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average. This positioning stems from persistent below-average ice growth throughout fall and winter, driven by unusually warm air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and reduced ice volume, the lowest on record per satellite data since 1979. Trader consensus reflects this authoritative measurement, with extent now declining as spring melt advances. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NSIDC's final analysis or anomalous late-season refreezing, both improbable given current trajectories and model consensus.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. NSIDC scientists announced that Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum winter extent on March 15, 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers—firmly within the 14.2-14.4 million sq km range commanding 94.5% market-implied probability—tying near-record lows from 2025 and falling 1.36 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average. This positioning stems from persistent below-average ice growth throughout fall and winter, driven by unusually warm air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and reduced ice volume, the lowest on record per satellite data since 1979. Trader consensus reflects this authoritative measurement, with extent now declining as spring melt advances. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NSIDC's final analysis or anomalous late-season refreezing, both improbable given current trajectories and model consensus.

NSIDC scientists announced that Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum winter extent on March 15, 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers—firmly within the 14.2-14.4 million sq km range commanding 94.5% market-implied probability—tying near-record lows from 2025 and falling 1.36 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average. This positioning stems from persistent below-average ice growth throughout fall and winter, driven by unusually warm air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean and reduced ice volume, the lowest on record per satellite data since 1979. Trader consensus reflects this authoritative measurement, with extent now declining as spring melt advances. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from NSIDC's final analysis or anomalous late-season refreezing, both improbable given current trajectories and model consensus.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「1,420万〜1,440万平方キロメートル」で95%、次いで「1,400万平方キロメートル未満」が3%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、95¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に95%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？」は$30.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 20, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「1,420万〜1,440万平方キロメートル」で95%であり、市場がこの結果に95%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1,400万平方キロメートル未満」で3%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「この冬の最大北極海氷面積は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。