Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty around the total distinct countries facing U.S. drone, missile, or airstrikes in 2026, with 7 at 29%, 8 at 25%, and 9 at 15% leading amid an ongoing U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February strikes targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Earlier actions include January operations in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, large-scale ISIS airstrikes in Syria, and continued al-Shabaab strikes in Somalia, alongside reports of activity in Iraq, Yemen, Ecuador, and possibly Haiti or Nigeria, putting the confirmed tally near 6-7. The tight race stems from escalation risks—Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and retaliatory proxy attacks on Gulf allies could prompt U.S. strikes in Lebanon, Pakistan, or additional fronts—versus potential de-escalation via talks or regime collapse. Congressional war powers debates and Pentagon ground operation preparations loom as market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日7 29.2%
8 24.9%
9 15.3%
10 11.3%
$724,546 Vol.
$724,546 Vol.
2026/12/31
6
11%
7
29%
8
25%
9
15%
10
11%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15以上
4%
7 29.2%
8 24.9%
9 15.3%
10 11.3%
$724,546 Vol.
$724,546 Vol.
2026/12/31
6
$417,366 Vol.
11%
7
$3,938 Vol.
29%
8
$8,259 Vol.
25%
9
$8,921 Vol.
15%
10
$10,292 Vol.
11%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
1%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15以上
$49,132 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty around the total distinct countries facing U.S. drone, missile, or airstrikes in 2026, with 7 at 29%, 8 at 25%, and 9 at 15% leading amid an ongoing U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February strikes targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Earlier actions include January operations in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, large-scale ISIS airstrikes in Syria, and continued al-Shabaab strikes in Somalia, alongside reports of activity in Iraq, Yemen, Ecuador, and possibly Haiti or Nigeria, putting the confirmed tally near 6-7. The tight race stems from escalation risks—Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and retaliatory proxy attacks on Gulf allies could prompt U.S. strikes in Lebanon, Pakistan, or additional fronts—versus potential de-escalation via talks or regime collapse. Congressional war powers debates and Pentagon ground operation preparations loom as market movers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
音量
$724,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty around the total distinct countries facing U.S. drone, missile, or airstrikes in 2026, with 7 at 29%, 8 at 25%, and 9 at 15% leading amid an ongoing U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February strikes targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Earlier actions include January operations in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, large-scale ISIS airstrikes in Syria, and continued al-Shabaab strikes in Somalia, alongside reports of activity in Iraq, Yemen, Ecuador, and possibly Haiti or Nigeria, putting the confirmed tally near 6-7. The tight race stems from escalation risks—Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and retaliatory proxy attacks on Gulf allies could prompt U.S. strikes in Lebanon, Pakistan, or additional fronts—versus potential de-escalation via talks or regime collapse. Congressional war powers debates and Pentagon ground operation preparations loom as market movers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$724,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty around the total distinct countries facing U.S. drone, missile, or airstrikes in 2026, with 7 at 29%, 8 at 25%, and 9 at 15% leading amid an ongoing U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran since late February strikes targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Earlier actions include January operations in Venezuela capturing Nicolás Maduro, large-scale ISIS airstrikes in Syria, and continued al-Shabaab strikes in Somalia, alongside reports of activity in Iraq, Yemen, Ecuador, and possibly Haiti or Nigeria, putting the confirmed tally near 6-7. The tight race stems from escalation risks—Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade and retaliatory proxy attacks on Gulf allies could prompt U.S. strikes in Lebanon, Pakistan, or additional fronts—versus potential de-escalation via talks or regime collapse. Congressional war powers debates and Pentagon ground operation preparations loom as market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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