Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Denver high of 78-79°F on March 24, driven by tight alignment across major forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peak afternoon temperatures in this narrow bin under a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying downslope warming from the Rockies. NOAA's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) reinforces this with 90%+ probabilities for highs below 80°F, consistent with recent soundings showing dry adiabatic lapse rates conducive to precise warmth. Historical March data shows Denver rarely exceeds 80°F this late in the season without föhn winds, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated cold front surge or increased low-level moisture triggering convective clouds, though model spread remains minimal at under 3°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?
78-79°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$161,448 Vol.
$161,448 Vol.
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$161,448 Vol.
$161,448 Vol.
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckly Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a Denver high of 78-79°F on March 24, driven by tight alignment across major forecast models like the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, which project peak afternoon temperatures in this narrow bin under a persistent upper-level ridge amplifying downslope warming from the Rockies. NOAA's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) reinforces this with 90%+ probabilities for highs below 80°F, consistent with recent soundings showing dry adiabatic lapse rates conducive to precise warmth. Historical March data shows Denver rarely exceeds 80°F this late in the season without föhn winds, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unanticipated cold front surge or increased low-level moisture triggering convective clouds, though model spread remains minimal at under 3°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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