Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's March 26 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 62-65°F amid a slight cooling trend. The latest GFS and European model runs, updated within the past 24 hours, show a mean near 63°F, down from warmer early-week projections as an upper-level ridge weakens and southerly winds moderate, introducing variable cloud cover and potential for diurnally driven highs. Historical March norms average 45-50°F, but recent mild air masses have boosted expectations; however, timing of a weak cold front adds divergence, with 62-63°F edging 64-65°F on cooler Euro bias. Watch tonight's 5 PM NWS update for refined guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
64-65°F 26%
62-63°F 25%
66-67°F 16%
68-69°F 13%
$187,026 Vol.
$187,026 Vol.
59°F or below
4%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
1%
64-65°F 26%
62-63°F 25%
66-67°F 16%
68-69°F 13%
$187,026 Vol.
$187,026 Vol.
59°F or below
4%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
25%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago's March 26 high temperature, with ensemble models clustering around 62-65°F amid a slight cooling trend. The latest GFS and European model runs, updated within the past 24 hours, show a mean near 63°F, down from warmer early-week projections as an upper-level ridge weakens and southerly winds moderate, introducing variable cloud cover and potential for diurnally driven highs. Historical March norms average 45-50°F, but recent mild air masses have boosted expectations; however, timing of a weak cold front adds divergence, with 62-63°F edging 64-65°F on cooler Euro bias. Watch tonight's 5 PM NWS update for refined guidance ahead of resolution at O'Hare Airport.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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