Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, supporting the market-implied 70% probability that June 2026 WTI crude oil settles above $84. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins averaging over 10 million barrels per day and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 70%
$77〜$84 19%
$70〜$77 8.1%
$63〜$70 2.2%
$164,234 Vol.
$164,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
1%
$42～$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56～$63
1%
$63〜$70
2%
$70〜$77
8%
$77〜$84
19%
84ドル超
70%
84ドル超 70%
$77〜$84 19%
$70〜$77 8.1%
$63〜$70 2.2%
$164,234 Vol.
$164,234 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
$17,450 Vol.
1%
$42～$49
$6,211 Vol.
1%
$49-$56
$7,389 Vol.
1%
$56～$63
$7,490 Vol.
1%
$63〜$70
$21,120 Vol.
2%
$70〜$77
$12,749 Vol.
8%
$77〜$84
$13,990 Vol.
19%
84ドル超
$77,835 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, supporting the market-implied 70% probability that June 2026 WTI crude oil settles above $84. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins averaging over 10 million barrels per day and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$164,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, supporting the market-implied 70% probability that June 2026 WTI crude oil settles above $84. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins averaging over 10 million barrels per day and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$164,234終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETGeopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, supporting the market-implied 70% probability that June 2026 WTI crude oil settles above $84. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins averaging over 10 million barrels per day and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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