Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict disrupting production and Strait of Hormuz shipments, have propelled WTI crude front-month futures above $100/bbl, with the June 2026 contract trading near $90-95/bbl to price in sustained supply risks—driving Polymarket's 59% implied probability for >$84 settlement. Recent volatility from mixed US-Iran ceasefire signals saw Brent spike to $105+ before easing below $100 on March 25 amid de-escalation hopes, yet trader consensus overrides bearish EIA and IEA outlooks forecasting softer 2026 demand growth of 640 kb/d and later price declines toward $70/bbl. Key catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions and conflict developments ahead of June resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 59%
$77〜$84 13%
$63〜$70 9%
$70〜$77 8.6%
$87,597 Vol.
$87,597 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42未満
2%
$42～$49
4%
$49-$56
9%
$56～$63
7%
$63〜$70
9%
$70〜$77
9%
$77〜$84
13%
84ドル超
59%
84ドル超 59%
$77〜$84 13%
$63〜$70 9%
$70〜$77 8.6%
$87,597 Vol.
$87,597 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42未満
$3,758 Vol.
2%
$42～$49
$3,094 Vol.
4%
$49-$56
$4,303 Vol.
9%
$56～$63
$3,633 Vol.
7%
$63〜$70
$16,034 Vol.
9%
$70〜$77
$4,409 Vol.
9%
$77〜$84
$7,228 Vol.
13%
84ドル超
$45,139 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict disrupting production and Strait of Hormuz shipments, have propelled WTI crude front-month futures above $100/bbl, with the June 2026 contract trading near $90-95/bbl to price in sustained supply risks—driving Polymarket's 59% implied probability for >$84 settlement. Recent volatility from mixed US-Iran ceasefire signals saw Brent spike to $105+ before easing below $100 on March 25 amid de-escalation hopes, yet trader consensus overrides bearish EIA and IEA outlooks forecasting softer 2026 demand growth of 640 kb/d and later price declines toward $70/bbl. Key catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions and conflict developments ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$87,597終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict disrupting production and Strait of Hormuz shipments, have propelled WTI crude front-month futures above $100/bbl, with the June 2026 contract trading near $90-95/bbl to price in sustained supply risks—driving Polymarket's 59% implied probability for >$84 settlement. Recent volatility from mixed US-Iran ceasefire signals saw Brent spike to $105+ before easing below $100 on March 25 amid de-escalation hopes, yet trader consensus overrides bearish EIA and IEA outlooks forecasting softer 2026 demand growth of 640 kb/d and later price declines toward $70/bbl. Key catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions and conflict developments ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$87,597終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict disrupting production and Strait of Hormuz shipments, have propelled WTI crude front-month futures above $100/bbl, with the June 2026 contract trading near $90-95/bbl to price in sustained supply risks—driving Polymarket's 59% implied probability for >$84 settlement. Recent volatility from mixed US-Iran ceasefire signals saw Brent spike to $105+ before easing below $100 on March 25 amid de-escalation hopes, yet trader consensus overrides bearish EIA and IEA outlooks forecasting softer 2026 demand growth of 640 kb/d and later price declines toward $70/bbl. Key catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions and conflict developments ahead of June resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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