Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, reflecting the recent surge in front-month futures to around $101 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Iran conflict disruptions. June 2026 futures trade near $95, backwardation signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA-reported crude inventory builds of nearly 7 million barrels for the week ending March 20. OPEC+'s modest output hike announcement provided limited offset to geopolitical risk premiums, with traders pricing in sustained volatility ahead of upcoming EIA releases and potential FOMC signals on energy inflation impacts. Lower bins trail due to bearish analyst forecasts averaging sub-$80 later in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 60%
$77〜$84 13%
$49-$56 9.1%
$63〜$70 9%
$87,818 Vol.
$87,818 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42未満
2%
$42～$49
4%
$49-$56
9%
$56～$63
7%
$63〜$70
9%
$70〜$77
8%
$77〜$84
13%
84ドル超
60%
84ドル超 60%
$77〜$84 13%
$49-$56 9.1%
$63〜$70 9%
$87,818 Vol.
$87,818 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42未満
$3,770 Vol.
2%
$42～$49
$3,106 Vol.
4%
$49-$56
$4,379 Vol.
9%
$56～$63
$3,645 Vol.
7%
$63〜$70
$16,063 Vol.
9%
$70〜$77
$4,421 Vol.
8%
$77〜$84
$7,240 Vol.
13%
84ドル超
$45,195 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, reflecting the recent surge in front-month futures to around $101 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Iran conflict disruptions. June 2026 futures trade near $95, backwardation signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA-reported crude inventory builds of nearly 7 million barrels for the week ending March 20. OPEC+'s modest output hike announcement provided limited offset to geopolitical risk premiums, with traders pricing in sustained volatility ahead of upcoming EIA releases and potential FOMC signals on energy inflation impacts. Lower bins trail due to bearish analyst forecasts averaging sub-$80 later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$87,818終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, reflecting the recent surge in front-month futures to around $101 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Iran conflict disruptions. June 2026 futures trade near $95, backwardation signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA-reported crude inventory builds of nearly 7 million barrels for the week ending March 20. OPEC+'s modest output hike announcement provided limited offset to geopolitical risk premiums, with traders pricing in sustained volatility ahead of upcoming EIA releases and potential FOMC signals on energy inflation impacts. Lower bins trail due to bearish analyst forecasts averaging sub-$80 later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$87,818終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 58.5% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June 2026, reflecting the recent surge in front-month futures to around $101 per barrel amid escalating Middle East tensions, including attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Iran conflict disruptions. June 2026 futures trade near $95, backwardation signaling tight near-term supply expectations despite EIA-reported crude inventory builds of nearly 7 million barrels for the week ending March 20. OPEC+'s modest output hike announcement provided limited offset to geopolitical risk premiums, with traders pricing in sustained volatility ahead of upcoming EIA releases and potential FOMC signals on energy inflation impacts. Lower bins trail due to bearish analyst forecasts averaging sub-$80 later in 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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