Recent geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts, have tightened global crude balances and lifted WTI prices near $98 per barrel as of May 22. These shocks, with an estimated 10.5 million barrels per day of shut-in production across key Gulf producers, are driving sharp inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 according to EIA projections, supporting Brent averages around $106 through June. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% implied probability for settlement above $84 prices in the persistent physical shortages and limited near-term supply recovery, though gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and the June 7 OPEC+ meeting introduce downside risks if diplomatic progress accelerates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
原油（ CL ）は6月に何に落ち着きますか？
84ドル超 72%
$77〜$84 16%
$70〜$77 5.8%
$63〜$70 1.0%
$193,678 Vol.
$193,678 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
<1%
$42～$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56～$63
1%
$63〜$70
1%
$70〜$77
6%
$77〜$84
16%
84ドル超
72%
84ドル超 72%
$77〜$84 16%
$70〜$77 5.8%
$63〜$70 1.0%
$193,678 Vol.
$193,678 Vol.
2026/06/30
$42未満
$20,386 Vol.
<1%
$42～$49
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$11,385 Vol.
1%
$56～$63
$10,885 Vol.
1%
$63〜$70
$25,053 Vol.
1%
$70〜$77
$15,329 Vol.
6%
$77〜$84
$16,764 Vol.
16%
84ドル超
$84,277 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Recent geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts, have tightened global crude balances and lifted WTI prices near $98 per barrel as of May 22. These shocks, with an estimated 10.5 million barrels per day of shut-in production across key Gulf producers, are driving sharp inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 according to EIA projections, supporting Brent averages around $106 through June. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% implied probability for settlement above $84 prices in the persistent physical shortages and limited near-term supply recovery, though gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and the June 7 OPEC+ meeting introduce downside risks if diplomatic progress accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
音量
$193,678終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Recent geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts, have tightened global crude balances and lifted WTI prices near $98 per barrel as of May 22. These shocks, with an estimated 10.5 million barrels per day of shut-in production across key Gulf producers, are driving sharp inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 according to EIA projections, supporting Brent averages around $106 through June. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% implied probability for settlement above $84 prices in the persistent physical shortages and limited near-term supply recovery, though gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and the June 7 OPEC+ meeting introduce downside risks if diplomatic progress accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$193,678終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETRecent geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts, have tightened global crude balances and lifted WTI prices near $98 per barrel as of May 22. These shocks, with an estimated 10.5 million barrels per day of shut-in production across key Gulf producers, are driving sharp inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 according to EIA projections, supporting Brent averages around $106 through June. Trader consensus reflected in the 72% implied probability for settlement above $84 prices in the persistent physical shortages and limited near-term supply recovery, though gradual Hormuz traffic resumption and the June 7 OPEC+ meeting introduce downside risks if diplomatic progress accelerates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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