Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
Politique·Israël

Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?

Market icon
Politique·Israël

Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

$6,929,664 Vol.

Nov 7, 2025
Polymarket

$6,929,664 Vol.

Polymarket

30 octobre

$77,645 Vol.

Oui

31 octobre

$153,814 Vol.

Non

1er novembre

$77,419 Vol.

Non

November 2

$104,552 Vol.

Oui

3 novembre

$79,019 Vol.

Oui

4 novembre

$126,778 Vol.

Oui

5 novembre

$203,702 Vol.

Non

6 novembre

$49,111 Vol.

Non

7 novembre

$35,457 Vol.

Non

8 novembre

$15,571 Vol.

Oui

9 novembre

$1,280,816 Vol.

Non

10 novembre

$61,561 Vol.

Oui

11 novembre

$29,870 Vol.

Non

12 novembre

$92,584 Vol.

Oui

13 novembre

$54,020 Vol.

Non

14 novembre

$45,955 Vol.

Non

15 novembre

$42,589 Vol.

Non

16 novembre

$83,132 Vol.

Oui

17 novembre

$87,333 Vol.

Oui

18 novembre

$85,671 Vol.

Non

19 novembre

$44,963 Vol.

Oui

20 novembre

$54,782 Vol.

Oui

21 novembre

$26,088 Vol.

Oui

22 novembre

$21,268 Vol.

Oui

23 novembre

$30,534 Vol.

Non

November 24

$14,365 Vol.

Oui

25 novembre

$59,307 Vol.

Non

26 novembre

$53,317 Vol.

Oui

27 novembre

$33,245 Vol.

Non

28 novembre

$12,086 Vol.

Oui

29 novembre

$11,476 Vol.

Oui

30 novembre

$1,857,452 Vol.

Non

1er décembre

$62,509 Vol.

Oui

2 décembre

$106,063 Vol.

Oui

3 décembre

$147,719 Vol.

Oui

4 décembre

$85,586 Vol.

Non

December 5

$71,822 Vol.

Oui

6 décembre

$139,818 Vol.

Non

7 décembre

$60,961 Vol.

Non

8 décembre

$131,667 Vol.

Oui

9 décembre

$57,324 Vol.

Non

10 décembre

$35,639 Vol.

Non

11 décembre

$31,527 Vol.

Non

12 décembre

$18,538 Vol.

Non

13 décembre

$15,811 Vol.

Oui

14 décembre

$44,676 Vol.

Non

15 décembre

$15,593 Vol.

Non

16 décembre

$19,598 Vol.

Non

Titre d'élément de groupe : 17 décembre

$54,038 Vol.

Non

18 décembre

$20,785 Vol.

Oui

19 décembre

$18,414 Vol.

Oui

20 décembre

$156,923 Vol.

Oui

21 décembre

$95,642 Vol.

Oui

22 décembre

$103,890 Vol.

Non

23 décembre

$42,350 Vol.

Non

24 décembre

$79,828 Vol.

Non

25 décembre

$97,271 Vol.

Oui

26 décembre

$90,936 Vol.

Non

27 décembre

$29,623 Vol.

Non

28 décembre

$19,861 Vol.

Non

29 décembre

$18,062 Vol.

Non

30 décembre

$23,206 Vol.

Non

31 décembre

$28,504 Vol.

Non

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$6,929,664
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Marché ouvert
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Résultat proposé: Oui

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 63+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 octobre" at 100%, followed by "November 2" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?," browse the 63+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?" is "30 octobre" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "November 2" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.