Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Jan 31

Feb 28

$6,929,664 Vol.

Nov 7, 2025

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$6,929,664
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Résultat proposé: Oui

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israël frappera Gaza le ... ?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Jan 31

Feb 28

$6,929,664 Vol.

30 octobre

$77,645 Vol.

Oui

31 octobre

$153,814 Vol.

Non

1er novembre

$77,419 Vol.

Non

11月2日

$104,552 Vol.

Oui

3 novembre

$79,019 Vol.

Oui

4 novembre

$126,778 Vol.

Oui

5 novembre

$203,702 Vol.

Non

6 novembre

$49,111 Vol.

Non

7 novembre

$35,457 Vol.

Non

8 novembre

$15,571 Vol.

Oui

9 novembre

$1,280,816 Vol.

Non

10 novembre

$61,561 Vol.

Oui

11 novembre

$29,870 Vol.

Non

12 novembre

$92,584 Vol.

Oui

13 novembre

$54,020 Vol.

Non

14 novembre

$45,955 Vol.

Non

15 novembre

$42,589 Vol.

Non

16 novembre

$83,132 Vol.

Oui

17 novembre

$87,333 Vol.

Oui

18 novembre

$85,671 Vol.

Non

19 novembre

$44,963 Vol.

Oui

20 novembre

$54,782 Vol.

Oui

21 novembre

$26,088 Vol.

Oui

22 novembre

$21,268 Vol.

Oui

23 novembre

$30,534 Vol.

Non

November 24

$14,365 Vol.

Oui

25 novembre

$59,307 Vol.

Non

26 novembre

$53,317 Vol.

Oui

27 novembre

$33,245 Vol.

Non

28 novembre

$12,086 Vol.

Oui

29 novembre

$11,476 Vol.

Oui

30 novembre

$1,857,452 Vol.

Non

1er décembre

$62,509 Vol.

Oui

2 décembre

$106,063 Vol.

Oui

3 décembre

$147,719 Vol.

Oui

4 décembre

$85,586 Vol.

Non

December 5

$71,822 Vol.

Oui

6 décembre

$139,818 Vol.

Non

7 décembre

$60,961 Vol.

Non

8 décembre

$131,667 Vol.

Oui

9 décembre

$57,324 Vol.

Non

10 décembre

$35,639 Vol.

Non

11 décembre

$31,527 Vol.

Non

12 décembre

$18,538 Vol.

Non

13 décembre

$15,811 Vol.

Oui

14 décembre

$44,676 Vol.

Non

15 décembre

$15,593 Vol.

Non

16 décembre

$19,598 Vol.

Non

Titre d'élément de groupe : 17 décembre

$54,038 Vol.

Non

18 décembre

$20,785 Vol.

Oui

19 décembre

$18,414 Vol.

Oui

20 décembre

$156,923 Vol.

Oui

21 décembre

$95,642 Vol.

Oui

22 décembre

$103,890 Vol.

Non

23 décembre

$42,350 Vol.

Non

24 décembre

$79,828 Vol.

Non

25 décembre

$97,271 Vol.

Oui

26 décembre

$90,936 Vol.

Non

27 décembre

$29,623 Vol.

Non

28 décembre

$19,861 Vol.

Non

29 décembre

$18,062 Vol.

Non

30 décembre

$23,206 Vol.

Non

31 décembre

$28,504 Vol.

Non

À propos

Volume
$6,929,664
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Créé le
Oct 28, 2025, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.