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Géopolitique·Chine

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Chine

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

juin 30

sept. 30

déc. 31

juin 30, 2027

juin 30

sept. 30

déc. 31

juin 30, 2027

13% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$10,577 Vol.

13% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$10,577 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment—concluding China likely will not invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at an 87.5% implied probability against invasion by June 30. This reflects recent de-escalation signals, including fewer People's Liberation Army flights around the Taiwan Strait and no major exercises since late 2025, amid Beijing's economic headwinds, internal PLA readiness purges, and robust U.S. deterrence. China sustains multidomain coercive pressure through gray-zone tactics in the Taiwan Strait, but amphibious barriers remain high. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts, escalation signals, or U.S. policy changes could still alter odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,577
Date de fin
30 juin 2027
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 18, 2026, Annual Threat Assessment—concluding China likely will not invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefers unification without force—anchors trader consensus at an 87.5% implied probability against invasion by June 30. This reflects recent de-escalation signals, including fewer People's Liberation Army flights around the Taiwan Strait and no major exercises since late 2025, amid Beijing's economic headwinds, internal PLA readiness purges, and robust U.S. deterrence. China sustains multidomain coercive pressure through gray-zone tactics in the Taiwan Strait, but amphibious barriers remain high. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts, escalation signals, or U.S. policy changes could still alter odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,577
Date de fin
30 juin 2027
Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 13% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 13¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 13% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? » a généré $10.6K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? » est de 13% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 13% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.