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Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$85,046 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$85,046 Vol.

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$40,744 Vol.

25%

UAE

$16,774 Vol.

22%

Kuwait

$1,128 Vol.

7%

Bahrain

$475 Vol.

7%

Qatar

$341 Vol.

7%

Any E.U. Country

$2,430 Vol.

6%

UK

$15,934 Vol.

6%

France

$3,769 Vol.

5%

Jordan

$892 Vol.

5%

Turkey

$298 Vol.

5%

Oman

$313 Vol.

4%

Germany

$1,949 Vol.

3%

Canada

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led an intensive airstrike campaign against Iran since February 28, 2026, under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, targeting over 10,000 military sites, nuclear facilities like Natanz, missile infrastructure, and naval assets, while assassinating key leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Tehran released March 27 and Iran's review of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25, signaling potential de-escalation amid threats of further escalation. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait provide defensive intercepts against Iranian missiles but have not conducted offensive actions. UK bases support U.S. operations without direct strikes. Traders watch upcoming indirect talks and a possible U.S. timeline around April 9 for shifts in coalition involvement before the April 30 resolution.

The United States and Israel have led an intensive airstrike campaign against Iran since February 28, 2026, under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, targeting over 10,000 military sites, nuclear facilities like Natanz, missile infrastructure, and naval assets, while assassinating key leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Tehran released March 27 and Iran's review of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25, signaling potential de-escalation amid threats of further escalation. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait provide defensive intercepts against Iranian missiles but have not conducted offensive actions. UK bases support U.S. operations without direct strikes. Traders watch upcoming indirect talks and a possible U.S. timeline around April 9 for shifts in coalition involvement before the April 30 resolution.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led an intensive airstrike campaign against Iran since February 28, 2026, under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, targeting over 10,000 military sites, nuclear facilities like Natanz, missile infrastructure, and naval assets, while assassinating key leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Tehran released March 27 and Iran's review of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25, signaling potential de-escalation amid threats of further escalation. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait provide defensive intercepts against Iranian missiles but have not conducted offensive actions. UK bases support U.S. operations without direct strikes. Traders watch upcoming indirect talks and a possible U.S. timeline around April 9 for shifts in coalition involvement before the April 30 resolution.

The United States and Israel have led an intensive airstrike campaign against Iran since February 28, 2026, under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, targeting over 10,000 military sites, nuclear facilities like Natanz, missile infrastructure, and naval assets, while assassinating key leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent developments include Israeli strikes on Tehran released March 27 and Iran's review of a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan on March 25, signaling potential de-escalation amid threats of further escalation. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait provide defensive intercepts against Iranian missiles but have not conducted offensive actions. UK bases support U.S. operations without direct strikes. Traders watch upcoming indirect talks and a possible U.S. timeline around April 9 for shifts in coalition involvement before the April 30 resolution.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Saudi Arabia » à 25%, suivi de « UAE » à 22%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 25¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » a généré $85K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » est « Saudi Arabia » à 25%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « UAE » à 22%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.