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Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$466,003 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$466,003 Vol.

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$75,021 Vol.

29%

UAE

$38,513 Vol.

20%

Bahrain

$780 Vol.

9%

Any E.U. Country

$5,431 Vol.

9%

Kuwait

$1,273 Vol.

7%

Qatar

$727 Vol.

6%

Jordan

$926 Vol.

6%

France

$148,533 Vol.

5%

Turkey

$15,006 Vol.

4%

Oman

$340 Vol.

4%

UK

$103,183 Vol.

3%

Germany

$76,379 Vol.

3%

Canada

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A month into the US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear, missile, and command infrastructure—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 25 targeting ballistic missile bases like Imam Javad, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional bases. President Trump floated seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and deployed 3,500 Marines via USS Tripoli, while presenting a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan demanding nuclear dismantlement and Axis of Resistance curbs; Tehran has not formally responded. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and UAE signal strikes after absorbing attacks, with UK, France, and Germany ready for defensive actions. Regional talks in Pakistan loom as escalation risks persist through April 30 resolution.

A month into the US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear, missile, and command infrastructure—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 25 targeting ballistic missile bases like Imam Javad, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional bases. President Trump floated seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and deployed 3,500 Marines via USS Tripoli, while presenting a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan demanding nuclear dismantlement and Axis of Resistance curbs; Tehran has not formally responded. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and UAE signal strikes after absorbing attacks, with UK, France, and Germany ready for defensive actions. Regional talks in Pakistan loom as escalation risks persist through April 30 resolution.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A month into the US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear, missile, and command infrastructure—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 25 targeting ballistic missile bases like Imam Javad, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional bases. President Trump floated seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and deployed 3,500 Marines via USS Tripoli, while presenting a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan demanding nuclear dismantlement and Axis of Resistance curbs; Tehran has not formally responded. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and UAE signal strikes after absorbing attacks, with UK, France, and Germany ready for defensive actions. Regional talks in Pakistan loom as escalation risks persist through April 30 resolution.

A month into the US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 against Iranian nuclear, missile, and command infrastructure—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 25 targeting ballistic missile bases like Imam Javad, amid Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and US regional bases. President Trump floated seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal and deployed 3,500 Marines via USS Tripoli, while presenting a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan demanding nuclear dismantlement and Axis of Resistance curbs; Tehran has not formally responded. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and UAE signal strikes after absorbing attacks, with UK, France, and Germany ready for defensive actions. Regional talks in Pakistan loom as escalation risks persist through April 30 resolution.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Saudi Arabia » à 28%, suivi de « UAE » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 28¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » a généré $466K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » est « Saudi Arabia » à 28%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 28% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « UAE » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.