Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, that the United States is assessing options to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, citing intelligence on covert yield-producing tests by Russia and China that disadvantage U.S. warhead development under the 1992 testing moratorium. This follows President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Departments of Energy and Defense to prepare testing "on an equal basis" with adversaries, amid the February 2026 expiration of New START arms control limits. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains stockpile reliability via subcritical experiments and modeling, but no resumption decision or timeline has been announced, facing congressional opposition like Sen. Jacky Rosen's concerns over fallout risks. Traders should monitor funding votes, further diplomatic claims, and NNSA readiness reports.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$610,219 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
30 juin 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
$610,219 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$0 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, that the United States is assessing options to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, citing intelligence on covert yield-producing tests by Russia and China that disadvantage U.S. warhead development under the 1992 testing moratorium. This follows President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Departments of Energy and Defense to prepare testing "on an equal basis" with adversaries, amid the February 2026 expiration of New START arms control limits. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains stockpile reliability via subcritical experiments and modeling, but no resumption decision or timeline has been announced, facing congressional opposition like Sen. Jacky Rosen's concerns over fallout risks. Traders should monitor funding votes, further diplomatic claims, and NNSA readiness reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$610,219Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, that the United States is assessing options to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, citing intelligence on covert yield-producing tests by Russia and China that disadvantage U.S. warhead development under the 1992 testing moratorium. This follows President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Departments of Energy and Defense to prepare testing "on an equal basis" with adversaries, amid the February 2026 expiration of New START arms control limits. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains stockpile reliability via subcritical experiments and modeling, but no resumption decision or timeline has been announced, facing congressional opposition like Sen. Jacky Rosen's concerns over fallout risks. Traders should monitor funding votes, further diplomatic claims, and NNSA readiness reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$610,219Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, that the United States is assessing options to resume underground nuclear explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site, citing intelligence on covert yield-producing tests by Russia and China that disadvantage U.S. warhead development under the 1992 testing moratorium. This follows President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Departments of Energy and Defense to prepare testing "on an equal basis" with adversaries, amid the February 2026 expiration of New START arms control limits. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains stockpile reliability via subcritical experiments and modeling, but no resumption decision or timeline has been announced, facing congressional opposition like Sen. Jacky Rosen's concerns over fallout risks. Traders should monitor funding votes, further diplomatic claims, and NNSA readiness reports.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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