Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200 million at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic debut, propelled by surging Fandango presales tracking $175-200 million over its five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday frame—outpacing even early benchmarks from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's record $204 million five-day launch. Yesterday's confirmation of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud amplified crossover appeal from Star Fox fans, while the final trailer and new posters fueled social buzz. Yet the wide-open field reflects analyst splits, with forecasts from $101-165 million three-day hauls amid pre-review uncertainty and competition; resolution hinges on family turnout during Easter week starting April 1.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 35%
190-200m 16.1%
170-180m 14.6%
180-190m 14.6%
$247,222 Vol.
$247,222 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
15%
180-190m
15%
190-200m
16%
>200m
35%
>200m 35%
190-200m 16.1%
170-180m 14.6%
180-190m 14.6%
$247,222 Vol.
$247,222 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$18,320 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$18,839 Vol.
13%
170-180m
$17,307 Vol.
15%
180-190m
$17,228 Vol.
15%
190-200m
$16,982 Vol.
16%
>200m
$158,547 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200 million at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic debut, propelled by surging Fandango presales tracking $175-200 million over its five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday frame—outpacing even early benchmarks from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's record $204 million five-day launch. Yesterday's confirmation of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud amplified crossover appeal from Star Fox fans, while the final trailer and new posters fueled social buzz. Yet the wide-open field reflects analyst splits, with forecasts from $101-165 million three-day hauls amid pre-review uncertainty and competition; resolution hinges on family turnout during Easter week starting April 1.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$247,222Date de fin
Apr 6, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200 million at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic debut, propelled by surging Fandango presales tracking $175-200 million over its five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday frame—outpacing even early benchmarks from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's record $204 million five-day launch. Yesterday's confirmation of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud amplified crossover appeal from Star Fox fans, while the final trailer and new posters fueled social buzz. Yet the wide-open field reflects analyst splits, with forecasts from $101-165 million three-day hauls amid pre-review uncertainty and competition; resolution hinges on family turnout during Easter week starting April 1.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$247,222Date de fin
Apr 6, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200 million at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's domestic debut, propelled by surging Fandango presales tracking $175-200 million over its five-day Wednesday-to-Sunday frame—outpacing even early benchmarks from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's record $204 million five-day launch. Yesterday's confirmation of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud amplified crossover appeal from Star Fox fans, while the final trailer and new posters fueled social buzz. Yet the wide-open field reflects analyst splits, with forecasts from $101-165 million three-day hauls amid pre-review uncertainty and competition; resolution hinges on family turnout during Easter week starting April 1.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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