Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Ken Paxton winning the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff by 9% or more at 30.1%, driven by his strong March 3 primary showing—trailing incumbent John Cornyn by just 1.2 points (40.7% to 41.9%) despite multi-candidate field—and a string of post-primary polls showing Paxton leading 46.4% to 41.0% on average, including a March 30 GQR survey (47%-42%). Paxton's appeal to the GOP base as a hardline conservative contrasts with Cornyn's establishment Senate leadership role, amplified by CPAC's recent endorsement. Low-turnout runoffs on May 26 often reward motivated conservatives; a Trump endorsement or Wesley Hunt supporters (13.5% in primary) consolidating behind Paxton could widen his edge, while Cornyn needs crossover from moderates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPaxton 9%+ 30.0%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
$42,775 Vol.
$42,775 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
30%
Paxton 6–9%
13%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
11%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
8%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
13%
Paxton 9%+ 30.0%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Paxton 6–9% 13%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
$42,775 Vol.
$42,775 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
$8,506 Vol.
30%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,877 Vol.
13%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,839 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,829 Vol.
11%
Cornyn <3%
$3,512 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,042 Vol.
8%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,566 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$7,604 Vol.
13%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Ken Paxton winning the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff by 9% or more at 30.1%, driven by his strong March 3 primary showing—trailing incumbent John Cornyn by just 1.2 points (40.7% to 41.9%) despite multi-candidate field—and a string of post-primary polls showing Paxton leading 46.4% to 41.0% on average, including a March 30 GQR survey (47%-42%). Paxton's appeal to the GOP base as a hardline conservative contrasts with Cornyn's establishment Senate leadership role, amplified by CPAC's recent endorsement. Low-turnout runoffs on May 26 often reward motivated conservatives; a Trump endorsement or Wesley Hunt supporters (13.5% in primary) consolidating behind Paxton could widen his edge, while Cornyn needs crossover from moderates.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$42,775Date de fin
25 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Ken Paxton winning the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff by 9% or more at 30.1%, driven by his strong March 3 primary showing—trailing incumbent John Cornyn by just 1.2 points (40.7% to 41.9%) despite multi-candidate field—and a string of post-primary polls showing Paxton leading 46.4% to 41.0% on average, including a March 30 GQR survey (47%-42%). Paxton's appeal to the GOP base as a hardline conservative contrasts with Cornyn's establishment Senate leadership role, amplified by CPAC's recent endorsement. Low-turnout runoffs on May 26 often reward motivated conservatives; a Trump endorsement or Wesley Hunt supporters (13.5% in primary) consolidating behind Paxton could widen his edge, while Cornyn needs crossover from moderates.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$42,775Date de fin
25 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Ken Paxton winning the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff by 9% or more at 30.1%, driven by his strong March 3 primary showing—trailing incumbent John Cornyn by just 1.2 points (40.7% to 41.9%) despite multi-candidate field—and a string of post-primary polls showing Paxton leading 46.4% to 41.0% on average, including a March 30 GQR survey (47%-42%). Paxton's appeal to the GOP base as a hardline conservative contrasts with Cornyn's establishment Senate leadership role, amplified by CPAC's recent endorsement. Low-turnout runoffs on May 26 often reward motivated conservatives; a Trump endorsement or Wesley Hunt supporters (13.5% in primary) consolidating behind Paxton could widen his edge, while Cornyn needs crossover from moderates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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