Trader consensus prices a low 6% chance of Pedro Sánchez ceasing to serve as Spain's Prime Minister by June 30, 2026, and 21% by December 31, 2026, reflecting his minority government's stability despite mounting domestic pressures. Ongoing corruption investigations, including recent charges against his wife for influence peddling and cases involving former ministers, have eroded public support and fueled opposition calls, compounded by PSOE's heavy regional election loss in Aragón in February. However, no viable no-confidence vote looms, as the conservative PP lacks the absolute majority needed in Congress, and Sánchez retains parliamentary backing from Sumar and regional parties like ERC via prior amnesty deals. His bold international stances—such as refusing US bases for Iran operations and a recent China trip—sustain progressive appeal, with the next general election not required until August 2027.