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Politique·GLACE

Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09

Market icon
Politique·GLACE

Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09

Derek Merrin 61%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 13.4%

Josh Williams 11.4%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Derek Merrin 61%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 13.4%

Josh Williams 11.4%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Derek Merrin

$2,741 Vol.

61%

Madison Sheahan

$1,871 Vol.

15%

Alea Nadeem

$725 Vol.

11%

Josh Williams

$699 Vol.

16%

Wayne Kinsel

$351 Vol.

4%

Anthony Campbell

$428 Vol.

1%

Jacob Frost

$547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 58% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his superior fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—paired with local roots as former Waterville mayor and eight-year Ohio House member who narrowly lost to incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024. Josh Williams at 17% has gained momentum from a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging to 155 votes post-event from 109 pre-forum while Merrin fell to 47 from 70, highlighting grassroots appeal as current House Majority Whip. Madison Sheahan's 17% odds reflect challenges including a January Lucas County GOP residency rule change after her entry as ex-ICE deputy director and a March report on controversial agency vehicle spending; Alea Nadeem trails at 6% leveraging Air Force command experience. No public polls exist ahead of the May 5 primary in this redrawn Republican-leaning district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,362
Date de fin
5 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 58% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his superior fundraising—$608,000 raised and $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025—paired with local roots as former Waterville mayor and eight-year Ohio House member who narrowly lost to incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024. Josh Williams at 17% has gained momentum from a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging to 155 votes post-event from 109 pre-forum while Merrin fell to 47 from 70, highlighting grassroots appeal as current House Majority Whip. Madison Sheahan's 17% odds reflect challenges including a January Lucas County GOP residency rule change after her entry as ex-ICE deputy director and a March report on controversial agency vehicle spending; Alea Nadeem trails at 6% leveraging Air Force command experience. No public polls exist ahead of the May 5 primary in this redrawn Republican-leaning district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,362
Date de fin
5 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Derek Merrin » à 61%, suivi de « Josh Williams » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 61¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 61% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 21, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09 », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09 » est « Derek Merrin » à 61%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 61% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Josh Williams » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine OH-09 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.