Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$150,270 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
4%
March 30
4%
March 31
6%
15 avril
31%
30 avril
54%
31 mai
53%
30 juin
77%
$150,270 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,785 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,763 Vol.
3%
March 29
$20,021 Vol.
4%
March 30
$16,141 Vol.
4%
March 31
$71,938 Vol.
6%
15 avril
$489 Vol.
31%
30 avril
$2 Vol.
54%
31 mai
$152 Vol.
53%
30 juin
$2 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$150,270Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$150,270Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites producing ballistic missiles, marking a calibrated response to Tehran's October 1 barrage of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and ongoing proxy attacks via Hezbollah and Houthis. No further direct military actions against Iran have materialized in the past two weeks, as Tehran downplayed the strikes' impact and delayed retaliation amid US diplomatic urging for de-escalation ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Proxy conflicts persist in Gaza, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, but trader consensus reflects restraint signals from both sides, with the election outcome potentially influencing future escalation risks, US arms support, or sanctions policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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