Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive May 16 primary against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with recent March polls—such as Letlow's internal survey showing her +12 lead and Cassidy's +11 edge—reflecting a fragmented GOP field and no aggregate frontrunner. Louisiana's partisan primaries replace the prior jungle system, but weak Democratic contenders like Nick Albares lack fundraising or recognition, enabling trader consensus of 89.5% for a Republican general election win on November 3. The state's deep-red history, with no Democratic Senate victory since 2008 and Safe Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins high GOP probabilities despite primary volatility; a late scandal or turnout surge could narrow odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
90%
Démocrate
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$1,641 Vol.
90%
Démocrate
$2,147 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive May 16 primary against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with recent March polls—such as Letlow's internal survey showing her +12 lead and Cassidy's +11 edge—reflecting a fragmented GOP field and no aggregate frontrunner. Louisiana's partisan primaries replace the prior jungle system, but weak Democratic contenders like Nick Albares lack fundraising or recognition, enabling trader consensus of 89.5% for a Republican general election win on November 3. The state's deep-red history, with no Democratic Senate victory since 2008 and Safe Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins high GOP probabilities despite primary volatility; a late scandal or turnout surge could narrow odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,788Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive May 16 primary against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with recent March polls—such as Letlow's internal survey showing her +12 lead and Cassidy's +11 edge—reflecting a fragmented GOP field and no aggregate frontrunner. Louisiana's partisan primaries replace the prior jungle system, but weak Democratic contenders like Nick Albares lack fundraising or recognition, enabling trader consensus of 89.5% for a Republican general election win on November 3. The state's deep-red history, with no Democratic Senate victory since 2008 and Safe Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins high GOP probabilities despite primary volatility; a late scandal or turnout surge could narrow odds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$3,788Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a competitive May 16 primary against Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, with recent March polls—such as Letlow's internal survey showing her +12 lead and Cassidy's +11 edge—reflecting a fragmented GOP field and no aggregate frontrunner. Louisiana's partisan primaries replace the prior jungle system, but weak Democratic contenders like Nick Albares lack fundraising or recognition, enabling trader consensus of 89.5% for a Republican general election win on November 3. The state's deep-red history, with no Democratic Senate victory since 2008 and Safe Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins high GOP probabilities despite primary volatility; a late scandal or turnout surge could narrow odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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