This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 55.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on October 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 4 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for October 4 is available by October 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 4.