Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects SpaceX's blistering Falcon 9 launch cadence in early 2026, with approximately 45 orbital missions completed by April 11—surpassing global competitors combined—driven by relentless Starlink deployments averaging 25-29 satellites per flight and high booster reusability, including flights exceeding 30 missions per booster. This pace, roughly every 2.3 days from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Kennedy Space Center, projects 150-170 total launches if sustained, pitting 160-179 (37.5%) against 140-159 (35.9%) amid risks like weather delays, FAA regulatory pauses, or maintenance downtimes. Starship's delayed Flight 12 to May introduces upside potential for 180+ if operational orbital tests accelerate, though historical precedents favor Falcon-dominated tallies around 2025's 165 benchmark; watch next-week forecast updates from SpaceX manifests.