Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking 4 countries (35.5%) or 5 (28.1%) in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes this year in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that erupted with joint US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure. Recent escalations, including March 31 strikes on Tehran and Isfahan plus renewed Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28-29, sustain momentum for a potential fifth target like Yemen, keeping the race tight between 4 and 5. Absent further proxy activations such as Iraq-based militias or diplomatic breakthroughs like ceasefires, traders see limited paths to 6+ amid de-escalation pressures and historical patterns of contained multi-front responses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour4 35.3%
5 28.8%
3 17.5%
6 11.1%
$6,304,482 Vol.
$6,304,482 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
3
18%
4
35%
5
29%
6
11%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
Titre d’élément de groupe : 14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 35.3%
5 28.8%
3 17.5%
6 11.1%
$6,304,482 Vol.
$6,304,482 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
3
$1,891,088 Vol.
18%
4
$1,140,219 Vol.
35%
5
$452,843 Vol.
29%
6
$626,025 Vol.
11%
7
$584,676 Vol.
3%
8
$499,229 Vol.
2%
9
$198,631 Vol.
1%
10
$375,394 Vol.
1%
11
$89,589 Vol.
1%
12
$59,427 Vol.
<1%
13
$130,479 Vol.
<1%
Titre d’élément de groupe : 14
$97,143 Vol.
<1%
15+
$34,158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking 4 countries (35.5%) or 5 (28.1%) in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes this year in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that erupted with joint US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure. Recent escalations, including March 31 strikes on Tehran and Isfahan plus renewed Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28-29, sustain momentum for a potential fifth target like Yemen, keeping the race tight between 4 and 5. Absent further proxy activations such as Iraq-based militias or diplomatic breakthroughs like ceasefires, traders see limited paths to 6+ amid de-escalation pressures and historical patterns of contained multi-front responses.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,304,482Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking 4 countries (35.5%) or 5 (28.1%) in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes this year in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that erupted with joint US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure. Recent escalations, including March 31 strikes on Tehran and Isfahan plus renewed Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28-29, sustain momentum for a potential fifth target like Yemen, keeping the race tight between 4 and 5. Absent further proxy activations such as Iraq-based militias or diplomatic breakthroughs like ceasefires, traders see limited paths to 6+ amid de-escalation pressures and historical patterns of contained multi-front responses.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,304,482Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Israel striking 4 countries (35.5%) or 5 (28.1%) in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes this year in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war that erupted with joint US-Israeli attacks on February 28 targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, and infrastructure. Recent escalations, including March 31 strikes on Tehran and Isfahan plus renewed Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28-29, sustain momentum for a potential fifth target like Yemen, keeping the race tight between 4 and 5. Absent further proxy activations such as Iraq-based militias or diplomatic breakthroughs like ceasefires, traders see limited paths to 6+ amid de-escalation pressures and historical patterns of contained multi-front responses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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