Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects four countries—likely Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran—as the baseline for Israeli strikes in 2026 so far, with 4 (38%) narrowly leading 5 (30.5%) amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and Tehran infrastructure. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28 have intensified multi-front escalation, boosting odds for a fifth strike on Yemen while routine Syrian operations continue. Ceasefire negotiations brokered by the US, including recent Tehran talks, temper expansion risks to Iraq or others, keeping the race tight; diplomatic progress could solidify 4, but proxy retaliations or failed summits might tip toward 5 or higher by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour4 38.5%
5 30.8%
6 12.7%
3 12.2%
$6,278,506 Vol.
$6,278,506 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
3
12%
4
38%
5
31%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
2%
10
1%
11
1%
12
1%
13
<1%
Titre d’élément de groupe : 14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 38.5%
5 30.8%
6 12.7%
3 12.2%
$6,278,506 Vol.
$6,278,506 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
3
$1,876,211 Vol.
12%
4
$1,139,944 Vol.
38%
5
$452,323 Vol.
31%
6
$625,862 Vol.
13%
7
$584,452 Vol.
3%
8
$498,818 Vol.
2%
9
$198,529 Vol.
2%
10
$370,740 Vol.
1%
11
$89,483 Vol.
1%
12
$59,336 Vol.
1%
13
$129,252 Vol.
<1%
Titre d’élément de groupe : 14
$94,452 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,610 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects four countries—likely Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran—as the baseline for Israeli strikes in 2026 so far, with 4 (38%) narrowly leading 5 (30.5%) amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and Tehran infrastructure. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28 have intensified multi-front escalation, boosting odds for a fifth strike on Yemen while routine Syrian operations continue. Ceasefire negotiations brokered by the US, including recent Tehran talks, temper expansion risks to Iraq or others, keeping the race tight; diplomatic progress could solidify 4, but proxy retaliations or failed summits might tip toward 5 or higher by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,278,506Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects four countries—likely Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran—as the baseline for Israeli strikes in 2026 so far, with 4 (38%) narrowly leading 5 (30.5%) amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and Tehran infrastructure. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28 have intensified multi-front escalation, boosting odds for a fifth strike on Yemen while routine Syrian operations continue. Ceasefire negotiations brokered by the US, including recent Tehran talks, temper expansion risks to Iraq or others, keeping the race tight; diplomatic progress could solidify 4, but proxy retaliations or failed summits might tip toward 5 or higher by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,278,506Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects four countries—likely Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran—as the baseline for Israeli strikes in 2026 so far, with 4 (38%) narrowly leading 5 (30.5%) amid the US-Israel war on Iran launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and Tehran infrastructure. Ongoing Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon and Houthi missile barrages from Yemen on March 28 have intensified multi-front escalation, boosting odds for a fifth strike on Yemen while routine Syrian operations continue. Ceasefire negotiations brokered by the US, including recent Tehran talks, temper expansion risks to Iraq or others, keeping the race tight; diplomatic progress could solidify 4, but proxy retaliations or failed summits might tip toward 5 or higher by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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