Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 4, backed by MetService observations from the automatic weather station (AWS-93439), which recorded peak readings of 21°C amid northerly winds and partly cloudy skies typical for early autumn in the region. This aligns with forecast model consensus from MetService, showing mild advection of warmer air without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to alter trajectories. Historical April averages hover around 18–19°C, making 21°C plausible but unremarkable. Realistic challenges would require a late-day measurement revision or data anomaly from the station, though official summaries rarely shift post-midnight; final NIWA validation expected soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 4?
21°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$159,758 Vol.
$159,758 Vol.
19°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C or higher
<1%
21°C 100.0%
19°C <1%
22°C or higher <1%
$159,758 Vol.
$159,758 Vol.
19°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 21°C at Wellington International Airport on April 4, backed by MetService observations from the automatic weather station (AWS-93439), which recorded peak readings of 21°C amid northerly winds and partly cloudy skies typical for early autumn in the region. This aligns with forecast model consensus from MetService, showing mild advection of warmer air without significant cloud cover or frontal activity to alter trajectories. Historical April averages hover around 18–19°C, making 21°C plausible but unremarkable. Realistic challenges would require a late-day measurement revision or data anomaly from the station, though official summaries rarely shift post-midnight; final NIWA validation expected soon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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