Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 17°C or higher at 58% implied probability for Warsaw on March 29, driven by the latest AccuWeather guidance projecting a daytime high near 17°C (62°F) under mostly cloudy skies with light NNW winds at 12 mph and just 20% precipitation risk. This aligns with March 2026's exceptional +5.9°C temperature anomaly above the 3.2°C monthly norm, fueled by a disrupted polar vortex ushering mild Atlantic air masses—evident in yesterday's confirmed 16°C peak. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show low spread around 16–17°C, though cloud cover introduces uncertainty that could cap heating at 16°C (36% odds). IMGW observations will resolve the official Warsaw station high by evening, with hourly data tracking afternoon peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?
17°C or higher 55%
16°C 39%
15°C 11%
14°C 1.3%
$69,377 Vol.
$69,377 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
55%
17°C or higher 55%
16°C 39%
15°C 11%
14°C 1.3%
$69,377 Vol.
$69,377 Vol.
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
55%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a highest temperature of 17°C or higher at 58% implied probability for Warsaw on March 29, driven by the latest AccuWeather guidance projecting a daytime high near 17°C (62°F) under mostly cloudy skies with light NNW winds at 12 mph and just 20% precipitation risk. This aligns with March 2026's exceptional +5.9°C temperature anomaly above the 3.2°C monthly norm, fueled by a disrupted polar vortex ushering mild Atlantic air masses—evident in yesterday's confirmed 16°C peak. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show low spread around 16–17°C, though cloud cover introduces uncertainty that could cap heating at 16°C (36% odds). IMGW observations will resolve the official Warsaw station high by evening, with hourly data tracking afternoon peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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