Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 52-53°F in Seattle on March 26 at 45.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which converge on mild conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 50s amid persistent marine layer influence from the Pacific. Recent developments include a slight cooling trend in 12-24 hour updates following a weak frontal passage earlier this week, suppressing temperatures below climatological March averages of 54-56°F. Upper-level ridging over the region supports stable stratification, limiting mixing and warmer advection, though model spread introduces uncertainty—new 00Z runs expected overnight could refine land surface temperature projections ahead of resolution based on official Sea-Tac Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Seattle le 26 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Seattle le 26 mars ?
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 25%
50-51 °F 19%
48-49 °F 9%
$24,848 Vol.
$24,848 Vol.
43°F ou moins
<1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
3%
48-49 °F
9%
50-51 °F
19%
52-53°F
40%
54-55°F
25%
56-57 °F
2%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61 °F
<1%
62°F ou plus
<1%
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 25%
50-51 °F 19%
48-49 °F 9%
$24,848 Vol.
$24,848 Vol.
43°F ou moins
<1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
3%
48-49 °F
9%
50-51 °F
19%
52-53°F
40%
54-55°F
25%
56-57 °F
2%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61 °F
<1%
62°F ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high of 52-53°F in Seattle on March 26 at 45.5% implied probability, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which converge on mild conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 50s amid persistent marine layer influence from the Pacific. Recent developments include a slight cooling trend in 12-24 hour updates following a weak frontal passage earlier this week, suppressing temperatures below climatological March averages of 54-56°F. Upper-level ridging over the region supports stable stratification, limiting mixing and warmer advection, though model spread introduces uncertainty—new 00Z runs expected overnight could refine land surface temperature projections ahead of resolution based on official Sea-Tac Airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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