National Weather Service forecasts confirm a high temperature of 86-87°F in Denver on March 25, aligning precisely with the market's 100% implied probability on this bin, driven by a robust high-pressure ridge building over the central Rockies. Ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs updated yesterday shows peak afternoon heating under clear skies, downslope chinook winds boosting temps into the mid-80s, with surface observations already trending warmer than seasonal norms. Historical March data supports such events during El Niño winters, though low single-digit probabilities linger on hotter outcomes due to potential for enhanced solar insolation or wind gusts. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer intrusion or model drift in final 12-hour updates; traders await hourly observations resolving by midnight UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Denver on March 25?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 25?
86-87°F 100.0%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
92-93°F <1%
$68,745 Vol.
$68,745 Vol.
86-87°F
100%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 100.0%
88-89°F <1%
90-91°F <1%
92-93°F <1%
$68,745 Vol.
$68,745 Vol.
86-87°F
100%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckly Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts confirm a high temperature of 86-87°F in Denver on March 25, aligning precisely with the market's 100% implied probability on this bin, driven by a robust high-pressure ridge building over the central Rockies. Ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs updated yesterday shows peak afternoon heating under clear skies, downslope chinook winds boosting temps into the mid-80s, with surface observations already trending warmer than seasonal norms. Historical March data supports such events during El Niño winters, though low single-digit probabilities linger on hotter outcomes due to potential for enhanced solar insolation or wind gusts. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer intrusion or model drift in final 12-hour updates; traders await hourly observations resolving by midnight UTC.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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