Market-implied odds reflect deep uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Beijing, with global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering highs between 18–19°C amid early spring frontal variability. AccuWeather's latest guidance projects a 19°C peak under mostly sunny morning conditions transitioning to sun with high clouds, supported by light ESE winds at 13 km/h moderating northerly chill. Differentiating factors include afternoon insolation strength—full sunshine leverages urban heat island effects for 19°C, while transient high clouds or timing of peak heating cap at 18°C. Historical April 1 averages hover near 18°C; watch China Meteorological Administration hourly observations from Beijing Capital International Airport for resolution, with evening summaries clarifying the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 1?
19°C 55%
18°C 45%
20°C 3.3%
21°C <1%
$92,932 Vol.
$92,932 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
45%
19°C
55%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
19°C 55%
18°C 45%
20°C 3.3%
21°C <1%
$92,932 Vol.
$92,932 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
45%
19°C
55%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds reflect deep uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Beijing, with global models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering highs between 18–19°C amid early spring frontal variability. AccuWeather's latest guidance projects a 19°C peak under mostly sunny morning conditions transitioning to sun with high clouds, supported by light ESE winds at 13 km/h moderating northerly chill. Differentiating factors include afternoon insolation strength—full sunshine leverages urban heat island effects for 19°C, while transient high clouds or timing of peak heating cap at 18°C. Historical April 1 averages hover near 18°C; watch China Meteorological Administration hourly observations from Beijing Capital International Airport for resolution, with evening summaries clarifying the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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