Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's total prison time amid ongoing New York retrials and appeals, with no outcome exceeding 29% implied probability. The frontrunning "No Prison Time" at 28.8% gains traction from his advancing age (74), documented health woes highlighted in a March 10 Rikers Island interview, and repeated appellate successes, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence. Close challengers "10-20 years" (26%) and "20-30 years" (22.5%) hinge on his upheld 16-year California rape conviction—potentially standalone or augmented—versus a third rape retrial set for April 14, now facing possible delays. Key differentiators include plea negotiations floated in January, trial outcomes, and compassionate release prospects, underscoring the volatile legal saga post-#MeToo reckonings in Hollywood.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUne peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Une peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Aucune peine de prison 28.8%
10-20 ans 26.0%
20-30 ans 22.5%
<5 ans 10.8%
$682,833 Vol.
$682,833 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Aucune peine de prison
29%
<5 ans
11%
5-10 ans
8%
10-20 ans
26%
20-30 ans
23%
Plus de 30 ans
6%
Aucune peine de prison 28.8%
10-20 ans 26.0%
20-30 ans 22.5%
<5 ans 10.8%
$682,833 Vol.
$682,833 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
Aucune peine de prison
$292,377 Vol.
29%
<5 ans
$48,855 Vol.
11%
5-10 ans
$34,830 Vol.
8%
10-20 ans
$120,990 Vol.
26%
20-30 ans
$151,178 Vol.
23%
Plus de 30 ans
$34,603 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's total prison time amid ongoing New York retrials and appeals, with no outcome exceeding 29% implied probability. The frontrunning "No Prison Time" at 28.8% gains traction from his advancing age (74), documented health woes highlighted in a March 10 Rikers Island interview, and repeated appellate successes, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence. Close challengers "10-20 years" (26%) and "20-30 years" (22.5%) hinge on his upheld 16-year California rape conviction—potentially standalone or augmented—versus a third rape retrial set for April 14, now facing possible delays. Key differentiators include plea negotiations floated in January, trial outcomes, and compassionate release prospects, underscoring the volatile legal saga post-#MeToo reckonings in Hollywood.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$682,833Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's total prison time amid ongoing New York retrials and appeals, with no outcome exceeding 29% implied probability. The frontrunning "No Prison Time" at 28.8% gains traction from his advancing age (74), documented health woes highlighted in a March 10 Rikers Island interview, and repeated appellate successes, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence. Close challengers "10-20 years" (26%) and "20-30 years" (22.5%) hinge on his upheld 16-year California rape conviction—potentially standalone or augmented—versus a third rape retrial set for April 14, now facing possible delays. Key differentiators include plea negotiations floated in January, trial outcomes, and compassionate release prospects, underscoring the volatile legal saga post-#MeToo reckonings in Hollywood.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$682,833Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's total prison time amid ongoing New York retrials and appeals, with no outcome exceeding 29% implied probability. The frontrunning "No Prison Time" at 28.8% gains traction from his advancing age (74), documented health woes highlighted in a March 10 Rikers Island interview, and repeated appellate successes, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence. Close challengers "10-20 years" (26%) and "20-30 years" (22.5%) hinge on his upheld 16-year California rape conviction—potentially standalone or augmented—versus a third rape retrial set for April 14, now facing possible delays. Key differentiators include plea negotiations floated in January, trial outcomes, and compassionate release prospects, underscoring the volatile legal saga post-#MeToo reckonings in Hollywood.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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