Florida's 2026 special U.S. Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio resigned to serve as secretary of state. Moody enters the August 18 primary and November general with a structural edge in a state with consistent Republican lean. Recent University of North Florida polling shows her leading likely Democratic nominees Alex Vindman or Angela Nixon by 8–10 points, reflecting Moody's statewide profile from her attorney general tenure and limited Democratic primary visibility or fundraising impact to date. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that places the GOP nominee as the clear consensus favorite ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$64,843 Vol.
$64,843 Vol.

Républicain
89%

Démocrate
11%
$64,843 Vol.
$64,843 Vol.

Républicain
89%

Démocrate
11%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 2026 special U.S. Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed after Marco Rubio resigned to serve as secretary of state. Moody enters the August 18 primary and November general with a structural edge in a state with consistent Republican lean. Recent University of North Florida polling shows her leading likely Democratic nominees Alex Vindman or Angela Nixon by 8–10 points, reflecting Moody's statewide profile from her attorney general tenure and limited Democratic primary visibility or fundraising impact to date. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that places the GOP nominee as the clear consensus favorite ahead of the general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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