Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors China's 2026 annual GDP growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts like the IMF's October projection of 4.3% amid structural headwinds from the property sector slump, high local government debt, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Q3 2024 GDP data hit 4.6% year-over-year, buoyed by exports but pressured by deflationary trends and falling industrial profits. September Politburo signals and October fiscal stimulus measures— including rate cuts and bond issuance—have nudged the 5.0–6.0% band to 27%, though analysts doubt sustained momentum without bolder property support or consumption boosts. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference could clarify 2025 priorities influencing 2026 trajectories, with demographics and trade tensions as persistent drags.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour4,0–5,0 % 71%
5,0–6,0 % 26.9%
6,0-7,0 % 2.1%
7,0–8,0 % 1.6%
$192,687 Vol.
$192,687 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
1%
2,0–3,0 %
1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
71%
5,0–6,0 %
27%
6,0-7,0 %
2%
7,0–8,0 %
2%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 71%
5,0–6,0 % 26.9%
6,0-7,0 % 2.1%
7,0–8,0 % 1.6%
$192,687 Vol.
$192,687 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0 %
$16,383 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$25,913 Vol.
1%
2,0–3,0 %
$5,093 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$5,820 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$10,319 Vol.
71%
5,0–6,0 %
$10,712 Vol.
27%
6,0-7,0 %
$17,665 Vol.
2%
7,0–8,0 %
$27,858 Vol.
2%
8,0–9,0 %
$5,390 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$67,534 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors China's 2026 annual GDP growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts like the IMF's October projection of 4.3% amid structural headwinds from the property sector slump, high local government debt, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Q3 2024 GDP data hit 4.6% year-over-year, buoyed by exports but pressured by deflationary trends and falling industrial profits. September Politburo signals and October fiscal stimulus measures— including rate cuts and bond issuance—have nudged the 5.0–6.0% band to 27%, though analysts doubt sustained momentum without bolder property support or consumption boosts. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference could clarify 2025 priorities influencing 2026 trajectories, with demographics and trade tensions as persistent drags.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$192,687Date de fin
Jan 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors China's 2026 annual GDP growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts like the IMF's October projection of 4.3% amid structural headwinds from the property sector slump, high local government debt, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Q3 2024 GDP data hit 4.6% year-over-year, buoyed by exports but pressured by deflationary trends and falling industrial profits. September Politburo signals and October fiscal stimulus measures— including rate cuts and bond issuance—have nudged the 5.0–6.0% band to 27%, though analysts doubt sustained momentum without bolder property support or consumption boosts. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference could clarify 2025 priorities influencing 2026 trajectories, with demographics and trade tensions as persistent drags.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$192,687Date de fin
Jan 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors China's 2026 annual GDP growth in the 4.0–5.0% range at 71%, reflecting economist forecasts like the IMF's October projection of 4.3% amid structural headwinds from the property sector slump, high local government debt, and weak domestic consumption. Recent Q3 2024 GDP data hit 4.6% year-over-year, buoyed by exports but pressured by deflationary trends and falling industrial profits. September Politburo signals and October fiscal stimulus measures— including rate cuts and bond issuance—have nudged the 5.0–6.0% band to 27%, though analysts doubt sustained momentum without bolder property support or consumption boosts. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference could clarify 2025 priorities influencing 2026 trajectories, with demographics and trade tensions as persistent drags.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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