Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's repeated strategic pivots and development delays in its spatial computing lineup. Following the original Vision Pro's February 2024 launch and weak sales, the company issued only a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025—far short of a full successor—while suspending work on a redesigned high-end Vision Pro 2 to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models and AI-powered smart glasses, both now slated for 2027 or later per credible supply chain reports. No fresh announcements, production ramps, or prototype leaks have emerged in early 2026, solidifying trader skepticism amid historical patterns of slipping timelines. Realistic challenges include a surprise reveal at WWDC in June or a fall hardware event, though regulatory hurdles and resource constraints on Apple Intelligence integration make acceleration unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
Oui
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability against an Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, driven by Apple's repeated strategic pivots and development delays in its spatial computing lineup. Following the original Vision Pro's February 2024 launch and weak sales, the company issued only a minor M5 chip refresh in October 2025—far short of a full successor—while suspending work on a redesigned high-end Vision Pro 2 to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models and AI-powered smart glasses, both now slated for 2027 or later per credible supply chain reports. No fresh announcements, production ramps, or prototype leaks have emerged in early 2026, solidifying trader skepticism amid historical patterns of slipping timelines. Realistic challenges include a surprise reveal at WWDC in June or a fall hardware event, though regulatory hurdles and resource constraints on Apple Intelligence integration make acceleration unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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