Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a pad explosion during a May 2026 static-fire test of its BE-4 engines, damaging Launch Complex 36 and grounding the vehicle under FAA review. Pad reconstruction and investigation into the oxygen-valve failure have pushed any return to flight well into late 2026 or beyond, with no orbital attempts or hot-fire tests currently scheduled through October. This extended downtime, combined with the company's shift to hybrid integration processes and regulatory scrutiny, underpins the market's near-certain "No" consensus. While an unforeseen ground-test anomaly or accelerated repair schedule could theoretically intervene, historical timelines for similar incidents and the absence of near-term operations make such shifts improbable before month-end.