**xAI has not yet released Grok 4.4 as of mid-June 2026.** The company shipped Grok 4.3 in early May (following its April beta), featuring 1M-token context, built-in reasoning, video input, and aggressive pricing, with further June updates adding user-customizable skills. Elon Musk and internal roadmaps in late April targeted Grok 4.4 as a ~1-trillion-parameter model for early May (roughly 2–3 weeks after announcements), positioning it as a major scale jump over prior 4.x variants. However, reports from mid-May indicate the 1T model was delayed or potentially skipped, with a 1.5T version (originally slated for 4.5) advanced instead amid simultaneous training of multiple models on Colossus 2 and possible pre-training team adjustments. This leaves the current frontier at Grok 4.3 while xAI iterates rapidly toward larger successors like Grok 5. Market-implied odds reflect these timeline slips, with traders assigning the highest probability to a July 31 release window and lower odds to nearer dates, consistent with xAI’s history of aggressive targets that sometimes slip against competitive pressures and internal scaling priorities. Upcoming catalysts include any official xAI blog posts, Musk updates on X, or API/model-picker changes that would confirm public availability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$21,587 Vol.
30 juin 2026
June 15
3%
June 30
7%
31 juillet
70%
$21,587 Vol.
June 15
$6,955 Vol.
3%
June 30
$12,568 Vol.
7%
31 juillet
$737 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI has not yet released Grok 4.4 as of mid-June 2026.** The company shipped Grok 4.3 in early May (following its April beta), featuring 1M-token context, built-in reasoning, video input, and aggressive pricing, with further June updates adding user-customizable skills.
Elon Musk and internal roadmaps in late April targeted Grok 4.4 as a ~1-trillion-parameter model for early May (roughly 2–3 weeks after announcements), positioning it as a major scale jump over prior 4.x variants. However, reports from mid-May indicate the 1T model was delayed or potentially skipped, with a 1.5T version (originally slated for 4.5) advanced instead amid simultaneous training of multiple models on Colossus 2 and possible pre-training team adjustments.
This leaves the current frontier at Grok 4.3 while xAI iterates rapidly toward larger successors like Grok 5. Market-implied odds reflect these timeline slips, with traders assigning the highest probability to a July 31 release window and lower odds to nearer dates, consistent with xAI’s history of aggressive targets that sometimes slip against competitive pressures and internal scaling priorities. Upcoming catalysts include any official xAI blog posts, Musk updates on X, or API/model-picker changes that would confirm public availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$21,587Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI has not yet released Grok 4.4 as of mid-June 2026.** The company shipped Grok 4.3 in early May (following its April beta), featuring 1M-token context, built-in reasoning, video input, and aggressive pricing, with further June updates adding user-customizable skills.
Elon Musk and internal roadmaps in late April targeted Grok 4.4 as a ~1-trillion-parameter model for early May (roughly 2–3 weeks after announcements), positioning it as a major scale jump over prior 4.x variants. However, reports from mid-May indicate the 1T model was delayed or potentially skipped, with a 1.5T version (originally slated for 4.5) advanced instead amid simultaneous training of multiple models on Colossus 2 and possible pre-training team adjustments.
This leaves the current frontier at Grok 4.3 while xAI iterates rapidly toward larger successors like Grok 5. Market-implied odds reflect these timeline slips, with traders assigning the highest probability to a July 31 release window and lower odds to nearer dates, consistent with xAI’s history of aggressive targets that sometimes slip against competitive pressures and internal scaling priorities. Upcoming catalysts include any official xAI blog posts, Musk updates on X, or API/model-picker changes that would confirm public availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,587Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**xAI has not yet released Grok 4.4 as of mid-June 2026.** The company shipped Grok 4.3 in early May (following its April beta), featuring 1M-token context, built-in reasoning, video input, and aggressive pricing, with further June updates adding user-customizable skills. Elon Musk and internal roadmaps in late April targeted Grok 4.4 as a ~1-trillion-parameter model for early May (roughly 2–3 weeks after announcements), positioning it as a major scale jump over prior 4.x variants. However, reports from mid-May indicate the 1T model was delayed or potentially skipped, with a 1.5T version (originally slated for 4.5) advanced instead amid simultaneous training of multiple models on Colossus 2 and possible pre-training team adjustments. This leaves the current frontier at Grok 4.3 while xAI iterates rapidly toward larger successors like Grok 5. Market-implied odds reflect these timeline slips, with traders assigning the highest probability to a July 31 release window and lower odds to nearer dates, consistent with xAI’s history of aggressive targets that sometimes slip against competitive pressures and internal scaling priorities. Upcoming catalysts include any official xAI blog posts, Musk updates on X, or API/model-picker changes that would confirm public availability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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