Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ?
Un autre diplomate iranien expulsé avant le 30 avril ?
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 avr. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 avr. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$9,810Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,810Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no additional expulsion of an Iranian diplomat by April 30 at 93.5% implied probability, reflecting a lull in diplomatic actions following Argentina's declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid bilateral tensions. This caps a March wave of expulsions—Saudi Arabia ousted five including a military attaché on March 22, Qatar acted earlier that month, and Lebanon ordered its Iranian ambassador to leave late March though compliance lagged—driven by Iran's regional aggressions like Hormuz Strait disruptions and proxy attacks. A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire now holds, with delegations engaging in Islamabad talks, signaling de-escalation that traders view as curbing further persona non grata moves absent new provocations. Late escalations or failed negotiations could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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