Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 14% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained artificial intelligence demand despite escalating pressures. NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 revenue soared 65% to $215.9 billion, underscoring robust GPU sales for AI infrastructure, while Microsoft announced a $10 billion investment in Japanese AI data centers this week. Early 2026 volatility trimmed NVDA shares 7% year-to-date and pressured semis like SOXX, but no 90-day window has triggered the market's strict criteria—requiring at least three severe declines, such as NVDA down 50% from its all-time high. Rising energy costs from power-hungry data centers, which spiked U.S. electricity bills and created "heat island" effects, plus reports of 95% generative AI project failures, fuel caution. Upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet could validate profitability or expose cracks in the AI hype cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa bulle de l'IA a éclaté par... ?
La bulle de l'IA a éclaté par... ?
$2,540,198 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre 2026
16%
$2,540,198 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
$1,952,203 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 14% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained artificial intelligence demand despite escalating pressures. NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 revenue soared 65% to $215.9 billion, underscoring robust GPU sales for AI infrastructure, while Microsoft announced a $10 billion investment in Japanese AI data centers this week. Early 2026 volatility trimmed NVDA shares 7% year-to-date and pressured semis like SOXX, but no 90-day window has triggered the market's strict criteria—requiring at least three severe declines, such as NVDA down 50% from its all-time high. Rising energy costs from power-hungry data centers, which spiked U.S. electricity bills and created "heat island" effects, plus reports of 95% generative AI project failures, fuel caution. Upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet could validate profitability or expose cracks in the AI hype cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Volume
$2,540,198Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 14% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained artificial intelligence demand despite escalating pressures. NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 revenue soared 65% to $215.9 billion, underscoring robust GPU sales for AI infrastructure, while Microsoft announced a $10 billion investment in Japanese AI data centers this week. Early 2026 volatility trimmed NVDA shares 7% year-to-date and pressured semis like SOXX, but no 90-day window has triggered the market's strict criteria—requiring at least three severe declines, such as NVDA down 50% from its all-time high. Rising energy costs from power-hungry data centers, which spiked U.S. electricity bills and created "heat island" effects, plus reports of 95% generative AI project failures, fuel caution. Upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet could validate profitability or expose cracks in the AI hype cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,540,198Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 14% implied probability to an AI bubble burst by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained artificial intelligence demand despite escalating pressures. NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 revenue soared 65% to $215.9 billion, underscoring robust GPU sales for AI infrastructure, while Microsoft announced a $10 billion investment in Japanese AI data centers this week. Early 2026 volatility trimmed NVDA shares 7% year-to-date and pressured semis like SOXX, but no 90-day window has triggered the market's strict criteria—requiring at least three severe declines, such as NVDA down 50% from its all-time high. Rising energy costs from power-hungry data centers, which spiked U.S. electricity bills and created "heat island" effects, plus reports of 95% generative AI project failures, fuel caution. Upcoming Q1 earnings from NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet could validate profitability or expose cracks in the AI hype cycle.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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