Name: Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?
Start: 2025-05-22T18:16:28.040082Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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On May 22, 2025, the Trump administration announced it was revoking Harvard University’s certification to enroll international students, escalating its pressure campaign against elite universities (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration publicly announces that Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students—revoked by the administration in May 2025—has been reinstated, restored, or otherwise unfrozen between May 22 and June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation to suspend visas for new international students at Harvard University, citing national security concerns and the university's failure to disclose information about foreign students. This move escalates his ongoing conflict with the institution, significantly impacting its ability to enroll foreign students.

Trump Bans Harvard Visas

JUST IN - Trump signs proclamation to restrict the entry of "nonimmigrant" foreign students at Harvard. https://t.co/n54bWG6Ogr

BREAKING: Trump bans visas for foreign students at Harvard - AFP

Trump suspends foreign student visas at Harvard https://t.co/aTtqZvKeIF

HARVARD: President Trump just issued an executive order revoking Harvard’s authorization to enroll foreign students via the federal government’s SEVP program, citing, among other things, Harvard’s failure to fully disclose discipline of foreign students, until Harvard complies. https://t.co/V8vydtRyod

Trump suspends foreign student visas at Harvard University amid national security concerns https://t.co/TXHZhXNF7C

This is outrageous … and stupid. We have no chance of competing with China if we cripple one of our best universities and alienate the best and brightest from around the world. 
“Trump bans Harvard from admitting new international students” https://t.co/dSRwkjr85D

🚨 BREAKING: Trump officially restricts foreign visas for Harvard University.

FAFO. https://t.co/yUIEXoRK6A

BREAKING: President Trump bars most international students from entering the U.S. to study at Harvard University. https://t.co/MM9Qmu6Mmu

BREAKING: Trump administration is banning visas for foreign students at Harvard

BREAKING: Trump has banned all foreign-national Harvard students and researchers from entering the US on student or foreign exchange visas. Shifts legal fight from one over State and DHS powers to presidential powers

President Trump signs a proclamation to suspend visas for new Harvard international students. https://t.co/iZWKg2JLwR

🚨🚨🚨 In the last two hours, the Trump admin:

- Banned all immigrant visas from 19 countries, including Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela
- Banned all student and researcher visas to Harvard
- Colluded with Texas to kick 20,000 undocumented college students off of in-state tuition.

Breaking News: Seeking a way around the courts, President Trump issued an order that he said would stop Harvard’s international students from entering the U.S. https://t.co/3T0jTAhVZp

"You were perfectly willing to limit the free speech of every conservative on campus for literally YEARS." 

@benshapiro DESTROYS the Left's narrative that Trump's war on Harvard is an attack on free speech. https://t.co/9eLfUcWRym

Absolute insanity. The damage Trump is doing to our country is incalculable. https://t.co/EYfss5bB6A

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Donald Trump firma la proclamación para restringir el ingreso de estudiantes extranjeros "no inmigrantes" a Harvard. https://t.co/suYfi6HQuY

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: El presidente Trump restringe la entrada a Estados Unidos de estudiantes extranjeros de Harvard.

I wonder what Trump's friends in Saudi Arabia, or Modi in India, or Bibi in Israel, think of Trump's ban on students from their countries from studying at Harvard?

So tonight Trump has:

- Announced a travel ban from a dozen countries

- Banned most international students going to Harvard from entering the country

- Launching an investigation into Biden

In the latest escalation of the White House’s fight with Harvard University, President Trump signed a proclamation Wednesday blocking foreign students from entering the U.S. to attend the school.

Follow live updates: https://t.co/Iil1hZRU6D

President Trump is hitting the elites where it hurts: their woke indoctrination factories. Tonight on Glenn TV, @benshapiro and I break down why Trump's war on Harvard is NOT an attack on free speech. https://t.co/wwwxwwegVs

Donald Trump has signed a proclamation to suspend visas for new international students at Harvard University. https://t.co/li3i4gJCEA

JUST IN 🔴

Trump signs proclamation restricting foreign student visas at Harvard. https://t.co/DX76a3ULiu

New: Trump says in a new escalation that he is banning foreign students from getting visas to study at Harvard, invoking presidential powers under the Immigration and Naturalization Act as he complains about them not giving DHS information about foreign students

President Donald Trump on Wednesday sought to restrict international students and scholars from entering the country to attend, conduct research or teach at Harvard University. 

https://t.co/8kGTB0GPuD

A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration's attempt to revoke Harvard University's ability to enroll international students. The administration initially reversed course by granting Harvard 30 days to challenge the policy, but the court's ruling extends protection for the university's foreign student program.

Trump's Harvard Visa Block

Trump administration reverses course, giving Harvard 30 days to challenge its bid to strip university of the ability to host international students
https://t.co/0Fdotcd6Hu

Trump administration reverses course, giving Harvard 30 days to challenge its bid to strip university of the ability to host international students
https://t.co/fzRSf8q3vA

Reuters: US JUDGE SAYS SHE PLANS TO ISSUE INJUNCTION BLOCKING TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FROM IMMEDIATELY REVOKING HARVARD'S ABILITY TO ENROLL FOREIGN STUDENTS

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Juez estadounidense dice que bloqueará congelamiento de Trump a estudiantes extranjeros en Harvard.

BREAKING via NYT: "Judge Rejects Trump Effort to Block Harvard From Enrolling Foreign Students"  🎁 🔗 

https://t.co/SiWXTT6Bzx

MAJOR UPDATE: The Trump administration has been BLOCKED in court from kicking out Harvard’s international students.

This fight is about defending students and protecting America's economic advantage to attract the best and brightest from around the world. https://t.co/9F9UmnFKa6

Another loss in court for Trump Admin.

Judge plans to block administration from restricting foreign students at Harvard University

https://t.co/3hh5C1qF5y

Judge says she will issue a preliminary injunction to block Trump administration from making changes to Harvard's student visa program indefinitely https://t.co/XJOB8ToJwf

#BREAKING: Judge sides with Harvard against Trump visa block https://t.co/IvjgNslpmc

🚨NEW: U.S. District Court Judge Allison Burroughs has extended her order blocking the Trump Administration from revoking Harvard University's ability to enroll foreign students.

RETWEET to thank Judge Burroughs for standing up for our democracy! https://t.co/8EyURKScEH

Breaking News: A federal judge said she would block the Trump administration’s efforts to prevent Harvard from enrolling international students. https://t.co/qqQv8kZxQ7

A federal judge has extended an order that blocks the Trump administration’s attempt to prevent international students from enrolling at Harvard. https://t.co/e417PLdyV9

BREAKING: A federal judge plans to block the Trump administration from restricting foreign students at Harvard University.  https://t.co/p7kng7VY88

El Gobierno de Trump da marcha atrás: Harvard tiene 30 días para defender su derecho de recibir estudiantes internacionales
https://t.co/4ZCFvaGkDV

BREAKING: A federal judge plans to issue a preliminary injunction that would stop Pres. Trump's administration from revoking Harvard's ability to enroll international students.

ABC News' @SelinaWangTV reports.

Read more: https://t.co/HOgB416LZ5 https://t.co/IRTZeT0iM7

NEW: Judge extends block on Trump bid to boot out Harvard's foreign students. This after DHS basically issued Harvard a 30-day reprieve, while not conceding Noem erred by "immediately" revoking school's status last week. w/@kellygarrity3 @biancaquilan https://t.co/CrHTjBXQ1z

BREAKING: Judge extends a temporary order to block the Trump administration's revocation of Harvard University's ability to enroll international students. https://t.co/AGcSlBMQox

President Donald Trump has announced he is considering reallocating $3 billion in federal grant money from Harvard University to trade schools across the country, escalating tensions with the institution. He has also demanded a list of Harvard's international students, intensifying his administration's standoff with the university over transparency and funding issues.

Trump Targets Harvard Funding

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Trump: "Estoy considerando quitarle tres mil millones de dólares en subvenciones a una Harvard muy antisemita y dárselos a ESCUELAS DE OFICIOS en todo nuestro país". https://t.co/X1vi5HAlD9

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump says he’s considering pulling THREE BILLION DOLLARS from Harvard and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS across the country

YES! DO IT @realDonaldTrump! 🔥 https://t.co/eI0e3XeROg

🚨| ÚLTIMA HORA: El presidente Trump anuncia que está considerando quitarle $3 mil millones en subvenciones a Harvard y dárselos a ESCUELAS DE OFICIOS en todo Estados Unidos. ¿Apoyas que Trump le corte el suministro a los progres de Harvard? Yo al 💯 % https://t.co/7YQP06ZZkK

Donald Trump Truth Social 05.26.25 08:42 AM EST

We are still waiting for the Foreign Student Lists from Harvard so that we can determine, after a ridiculous expenditure of BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, how many radicalized lunatics, troublemakers all, should not be let back into our

🚨JUST IN🚨

President Trump says Harvard hasn’t handed over their list of foreign students.

The list will be used to block far-left students from getting back into the country.

Trump calls out Harvard for shopping around for favorable judges to hear their case. https://t.co/xhY3MqVSPy

Why is Trump going after Harvard? 

Well… https://t.co/iObWDKXoNv

Donald Trump Truth Social 05.26.25 08:27 AM EST

I am considering taking Three Billion Dollars of Grant Money away from a very antisemitic Harvard, and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS all across our land. What a great investment that would be for the USA, and so badly needed!!!

BREAKING: President Trump is considering taking away $3 Billion in grant money from Harvard and giving it to Trade Schools instead.

Do it! https://t.co/kGgX53iOSE

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces he is considering taking away $3B in grant money from Harvard and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS.

WHAT AN AMAZING IDEA!! 👏🏻 https://t.co/uP9N1DU9iE

NEW — President Trump says he is considering sending $3 BILLION to trade schools instead of Harvard https://t.co/rtqvCsApPf

🚨 JUST IN: Trump says he is still waiting for the foreign student lists from Harvard https://t.co/qaglhor9st

Donald Trump is considering TAKING AWAY $3 billion from Harvard and giving it to trade schools.. 

Thoughts?? https://t.co/4cEmcL68RG

BREAKING: President Trump says he’s considering giving $3 billion of Harvard grant money to trade schools all across America

BREAKING - President Trump says he’s considering stripping $3 billion in federal grants from Harvard University and giving the money to trade schools nationwide. https://t.co/tMmYWmTH5o

JUST IN 🔴

Trump: “I am considering taking Three Billion Dollars of Grant Money away from a very antisemitic Harvard, and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS all across our land.” https://t.co/5mi5vYqMxq

The University of Tokyo could accept international students from Harvard University who have been impacted by Trump's attempts to revoke their student visa status: “We will contribute to ensuring that the learning of young, talented students is not interrupted and can continue.” https://t.co/ev62xpGa9S

Do you fully support President Trump revoking $3 billion from Harvard in federal grant money, and reallocating it to trade schools? https://t.co/ofWGK5F1jr

Trump says he's considering giving $3B of Harvard grant money to trade schools https://t.co/vNqDOqr7aR

Pres. Trump said on Monday morning that he is considering reallocating $3 billion in federal grant money from Harvard University to trade schools. https://t.co/7v0t2DIImA

Trump says he’s considering taking US$3-billion in grants from Harvard, giving them to trade schools https://t.co/SetmNzRq0k

Trump threatens to divert billions in grant dollars away from Harvard University and give those funds to trade schools across the US, escalating his clash with the elite institution https://t.co/EaWVaEeLUl

Pres. Trump on Monday doubled down on his demand for a list of names of international students enrolled at Harvard, yet another escalation in his administration's standoff with the university. https://t.co/ft9nIpR0MZ

The Trump administration has blocked Harvard University from enrolling international students, escalating tensions with the institution by revoking federal funding and targeting its endowment. Harvard, supported by federal judges issuing restraining orders, has sued the administration, arguing the ban violates legal rights and causes irreparable harm.

Trump Blocks Harvard Students

Reuters: U.S. JUDGE BLOCKS TRUMP FROM REVOKING HARVARD UNIVERSITY'S ABILITY TO ENROLL FOREIGN STUDENTS

🇺🇸 | ÚLTIMA HORA — La administración Trump suspende de forma inmediata el permiso de Harvard para inscribir estudiantes internacionales, según reporta The New York Times. https://t.co/W5nK5J90Jg

Harvard University is suing the Trump administration for their ban on enrolling foreign students. (via AP) https://t.co/mFSjhrHIo1

Reporter: Why would you not want the best and the brightest from around the world to come to Harvard?

Trump: I do but a lot of the people need remedial math. How can someone who can’t add get into Harvard and then you see those same people picketing and screaming at the US. We https://t.co/lkdRRd64vY

🚨 #BREAKING: A District judge has BARRED the Trump administration from revoking Harvard’s ability to import foreign jihadis and Chinese spies as “students”

A low level judge is once again pretending like they’re President.

And why the hell do they always look like this?! https://t.co/Sre3sOMz35

BREAKING 🚨

Trump NGELARANG Harvard menerima mahasiswa Internasional!

QUE MICO! Governo Trump é PROCESSADO por Harvard após tentar impedir a matrícula de estudantes estrangeiros na universidade. https://t.co/UhFebhXXTK

President Trump speaks up about Harvard's huge pile of wealth.

"They have $52 billion as an endowment...Harvard's going to have to change its ways." https://t.co/TslPH27lyx

🚨BREAKING: U.S. District Court Judge Allison Burroughs has blocked the Trump Administration from revoking Harvard University's certification to enroll foreign students.

RETWEET to thank Judge Burroughs for standing up for our democracy! https://t.co/kxc8rGtEwo

🚨 BREAKING: Trump advisor Scott Bessent confirmed that he and Trump are actively exploring a plan to tax Harvard’s endowment.

This isn’t economic policy, It’s political retribution dressed up as reform.

Harvard sued Trump. Now Trump wants their money.

This is what https://t.co/QC2jumiiQG

🚨 #BREAKING: The Trump administration has BLOCKED Harvard’s ability to enroll international students

GOOD!

NO MORE importing jihadis or Chinese spies under the guise of “education.”

This is in addition to Trump revoking hundreds of millions in federal funding the woke college https://t.co/JinVFB5zqs

🚨BREAKING: Trump just BLOCKED Harvard's ability to accept international students after revoking hundreds of millions in federal funding from the university. 

No more educating the enemies of America with taxpayer money! 

Another major victory. https://t.co/17rhunzwcl

🚨AGORA: Donald Trump, presidente dos Estados Unidos, proibiu Harvard de ter estudantes estrangeiros.

A universidade afirma que a medida é ilegal e que manterá sua posição de acolher alunos de mais de 140 países. https://t.co/JhZ7sCZ5iL

BREAKING: Judge grants Harvard a temporary restraining order preventing Trump from terminating international student program.

Thank you Judiciary. Keep fighting back. Trump hates the law and constitution. https://t.co/iFp1dBGFOC

A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from barring the enrollment of international students at Harvard. https://t.co/xW9vbCkhgJ

BREAKING:  U.S. District Judge Jeffrey S. White just blocked Trump from terminating the legal status of international students, including at Harvard, nationwide, as well as arresting and detaining them.

Countdown until MAGA screams "Activist Judge" and "Deep state" starting now! https://t.co/2xYbnRhfJ7

🚨#BREAKING: The Trump administration has just halted Harvard University's ability to enroll international students which has been effective immediately https://t.co/yrSlFRkYz7

BREAKING: A federal judge in Boston blocked the Trump administration’s order banning current and future international students from attending Harvard.

Judge Allison D. Burroughs issued a temporary restraining order, finding it would cause “immediate and irreparable injury” to https://t.co/sppsMvQ2io

The Trump administration has blocked Harvard from enrolling international students amid its legal battle with the university. https://t.co/CebKy7wmtV

Trump just banned Harvard University from enrolling international students as punishment for them standing up to him.

All current international students will be forced to leave. https://t.co/BqMali4gp2

JUST IN - Trump admin halts Harvard University's ability to enroll international students effective immediately — NYT

BREAKING: Trump administration bans Harvard from enrolling international students

BREAKING: Harvard University sues the Trump administration over ban on enrolling foreign students. https://t.co/UDsyYSGt5q

NEW and BREAKING: Another major blow for Harvard -- the Trump administration has essentially revoked Harvard's ability to enroll foreign students by taking away their ability to get visas. w/@MichaelCBender https://t.co/ojKW4gKWLQ

Breaking News: The Trump administration halted Harvard’s ability to enroll international students, a major escalation in its battle with the school. https://t.co/ncsGwrDK0M

BREAKING 🔴🔴

NYT: Trump administration immediately suspends Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students https://t.co/Erx75AcAKe

Harvard sued the Trump administration Friday, alleging that the decision to revoke the school's ability to enroll international students "is a blatant violation of the First Amendment, the Due Process Clause, and the Administrative Procedure Act." https://t.co/QblJPOayTM

BREAKING: The Trump administration on Thursday blocked Harvard from enrolling international students, targeting a key funding source for the university.

This is insane. This will weaken America by pushing out top talent, hurting the economy, and damaging our reputation. https://t.co/z4Li6hmsSI

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country
- Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions
- Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as a country being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Trump's travel ban removed by January 31?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority are fully removed from the list subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

People travelling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove them
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for them
- Congress passes legislation lifting their restrictions
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating they are no longer subject to restrictions
- People traveling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as the restrictions being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation at large or all restrictions for individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restrictions will suffice.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Donald Trump has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Trump on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines in 2025?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

The Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Department of Justice to release all unclassified Epstein-related documents within 30 days of its enactment, setting the legal deadline for publication at 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 19, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date  (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents that weren’t previously public and contain information pertaining to  the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, even if that information was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Platinum Card for individuals on trumpcard.gov is open for applications by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market, “open for applications” requires that the referenced website allows users to apply for the Trump Platinum Card and leads them into an application flow, instead of merely allowing them to “reserve your spot,” “join the waitlist,” or otherwise pre-register without applying.

Once the qualifying functionality goes live, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

This market will resolve to "No" if trumpcard.gov becomes permanently unavailable.

The primary resolution source for this market will be trumpcard.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump Platinum Card applications open by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, which were not previously public, by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 26?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto, by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, of any bill or resolution that explicitly mandates, compels, or formally calls for the public release of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

The Trump administration is considering imposing sanctions against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-hitting-un-palestinian-refugee-agency-with-terrorism-related-sanctions-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against the UNRWA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, asset freezes, restrictions on specific individuals, restrictions on foreign entities from providing funding to the UNRWA, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions. A U.S. designation of the UNRWA as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) or any other official terrorist designation will qualify as sanctions.

Sanctions against the entire UNRWA, specific parts of UNRWA operations, or specific officials of the UNRWA will count. Sanctions against citizens or entities which do not directly target the UNRWA or its officials will not qualify.

The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on the UNRWA within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Market Context

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Rules

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Market Context

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

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