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icon for Will Sweden join NATO by...?

Will Sweden join NATO by...?

icon for Will Sweden join NATO by...?

Will Sweden join NATO by...?

$398,465 Vol.

Apr 28, 2023
Polymarket

$398,465 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for April 30

April 30

$337 Vol.

No

icon for May 31

May 31

$599 Vol.

No

icon for June 30

June 30

$4,875 Vol.

No

icon for July 12

July 12

$97,296 Vol.

No

icon for August 31

August 31

$216,796 Vol.

No

icon for October 31

October 31

$62,248 Vol.

No

icon for December 31

December 31

$16,315 Vol.

No

This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used. This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom has stated that Sweden hopes to be a member of NATO by the time of the alliance's summit in Vilnius, which is scheduled to take place on July 11-12, 2023. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by July 12, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.

This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.

If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Volume
$398,465
End Date
Oct 31, 2023
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2023, 3:02 PM ET
This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used. This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom has stated that Sweden hopes to be a member of NATO by the time of the alliance's summit in Vilnius, which is scheduled to take place on July 11-12, 2023. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by July 12, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.

This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET.

If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Volume
$398,465
End Date
Oct 31, 2023
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2023, 3:02 PM ET
This is a market on whether Sweden will officially join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a full member state by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. If Sweden has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will resolve as “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Sweden join NATO by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 0%, followed by "May 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Sweden join NATO by...?" has generated $398.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2023. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Sweden join NATO by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will Sweden join NATO by...?" is "April 30" at just 0%, with "May 31" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will Sweden join NATO by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.