Name: Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?
Start: 2024-08-21T21:27:04.069006Z
End: 2024-08-23T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if IShowSpeed or Kai Cenat beat Minecraft hardcore by Friday, August 23, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that only IShowSpeed or Kai Cenat win; both do not need to win.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official video from IShowSpeed (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed) and Kai Cenat (https://www.youtube.com/@KaiCenatLive), however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Will MrBeast hit 103 billion views by December 31? 

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets over 100 million views in the first 7 days after being posted between September 25 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Videos posted within the final 7 days of this market's resolution date will qualify, and this market will remain open to allow for the full 7 days to be completed.

The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Note: This market refers to MrBeast’s posted YouTube videos. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced videos will not be considered.

Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's marriage takes place by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resole to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MrBeast (@mrbeast) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be MrBeast's X account: https://x.com/mrbeast

For an example of what MrBeast's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeastpfpdec.png

Will MrBeast change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”
Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.

A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.

Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperbeat officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hyperbeat (https://x.com/hyperbeat), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Is Earth flat?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 8, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 8 - 14)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

Robinhood is scheduled to stream on December 16, 2025, 9PM ET. (https://x.com/robinhoodapp/status/1995559179822510267)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled stream. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such stream is aired by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "AI" be said during the Robinhood stream?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Moscow" this week? (December 1 - 7)

This market will resolve according to the Game that wins Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards scheduled for December 11, 2025.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from thegameawards.com; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Arc Raiders win Best Multiplayer Game at the 2025 Game Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau are engaged to be married by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Perry and Trudeau have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Katy Perry and/or Justin Trudeau or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Is John McAfee alive?

This is a market to predict which team will win the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game.

If the listed team wins the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 NCAA Football Big Ten Championship Game is canceled or delayed past January 7, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from NCAA Football (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/football/fbs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Indiana win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed that Skye Valadez is the individual responsible for the shooting of Charlie Kirk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A “Yes” resolution requires one of the following:
- Formal arrest or charging of Skye Valadez by a recognized law enforcement agency in direct connection with the shooting
- Official statements by law enforcement naming him as the shooter or primary suspect
- An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming him as the shooter or primary suspect. 

Any of the above will independently qualify, conviction is not required to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Skye Valadez confirmed perp?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Santa Claus" in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if s1mple, the professional counter-strike player, announces his retirement from professional competitive esports by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement from s1mple that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred.

Breaks, periods of inactivity, transitions to another game, or transitions to streaming will not count unless s1mple explicitly announces his retirement from professional competitive esports. 

The resolution source will be official announcements from s1mple, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will s1mple retire by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This polymarket will resolve to the team that wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed pair wins the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this pair to win the tournament per the official rules of the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harri Heliovaara and Henry Patten win the 2025 Rolex Paris Masters Men’s Doubles Tournament

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

Market Context

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

Rules

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

Market Context

Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday?

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